The wait before the fall
When a building is demolished, a brief calm usually prevails at first. The dynamite blasts, the concrete exhales a few wisps and sways a little, there is a stillness for one or two seconds and then, with a groan, the whole thing comes down. Britain will live most of 2017 in that ethereal moment. In the spring, with Parliament’s blessing, Theresa May will detonate Article 50 of the eu treaty: the gelignite by which a country belonging to the European Union officially terminates its membership of the club. In Westminster that initial boom will drown out everything else, the puff of dust shrouding almost every other government policy. Yet by the end of the year, for reasons both domestic and foreign, Mrs May will have achieved little of substance.
Of course, Britain is now in unknown, volatile territory. Brexit strains, combined with a working majority of just 16, could force her to seek a personal mandate from voters at an early election, or even bring down her premiership. At times the year will feel like a long series of arm-wrestles between the legislature and the executive. But Mrs May is cautious and, with neither Labour nor the UK Independence Party in a good state, will probably resist the temptation to cash in on her soaring poll leads. Indeed, these should help her keep a lid on impatience and dissent in her party.
When she triggers Article 50, Mrs May will begin a two-year countdown to Brexit. The first couple of months will bring bureaucratic throat-clearing (the European Commission will lead the talks, with the European Council breathing down its neck). In the run-up to France’s presidential election, in April and May, mainstream French politicians will talk tough about Brexit to counter Marine Le Pen, the right-wing populist who wants her country to hold its own referendum on leaving the EU. Shortly afterwards German politics will turn inwards ahead of a parliamentary election in September, probably re-engaging in earnest with Brexit only in November, once a new coalition has emerged in Berlin.
