Southeast Nigeria’s Ongoing Crisis: Four Years of Fear, Shutdowns, and Violence

For the past four years, Nigeria’s Southeast has been trapped in a cycle of enforced shutdowns and escalating violence, triggered by the sit-at-home directive issued by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB).

Initially launched on August 9, 2021, as a protest calling for the release of IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu, the campaign has since evolved into a prolonged crisis. In pursuit of an independent Biafran state, IPOB has transformed a memorial intended to honour victims of past conflicts into a mechanism of fear, compelling widespread compliance through intimidation rather than conviction.

Fear, Not Choice, Keeps People Indoors

Don’t be misled by the quiet streets on Mondays. A forthcoming SBM Intelligence report reveals that although 82.6% of residents follow the sit-at-home order, only 29% actually support it. A top security expert explained that fear is the real reason people comply.

Armed groups, often referred to as “unknown gunmen,” attack anyone who dares to ignore the order. A community leader said these gangs have taken control, burning vehicles and harming people just to make others obey. What started as a peaceful protest has become a violent routine driven by threats.

Massive Financial Losses as Businesses Collapse

The financial damage to the region is enormous. In just two years, the Southeast has lost an estimated ₦7.6 trillion ($4.6 billion). An economist said vital sectors like trade and transport have been hit hard, and families are suffering income losses of up to 70%.

A seamstress from the region told SBM Intelligence that her income has dropped sharply, from ₦100,000 to just ₦27,000—, because of the ongoing shutdowns. Once-busy roads are now empty and dangerous. Transport workers are losing about ₦10–13 billion every day, according to a logistics expert. Micro-businesses—small shops and local services—are also suffering, losing up to ₦4.6 trillion every year.

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The Southeast Governors’ Forum estimates that each sit-at-home day results in losses exceeding ₦10 billion, with Anambra State Governor Charles Soludo placing the figure as high as ₦19.6 billion per day. These substantial economic losses have deterred investors and significantly undermined prospects for growth. Informal savings groups, which many families depend on for financial stability, have also collapsed, leaving countless households without essential support.

Schools Closed, Dreams on Hold

The damage goes beyond money. Education in the Southeast is also under attack. Schools are often closed on Mondays, and students are missing important exams. Some schools now hold classes on Saturdays to try to catch up. A school principal shared how deeply this is affecting the children. In a recent survey, 90% of people said they are against the sit-at-home, especially students and low-income workers who suffer the most.

ESN: From Defenders to Danger

IPOB’s armed wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN), was created in 2020 to protect Igbo communities. But it has now become part of the violence. Clashes with security forces are frequent, and a security expert said that ESN and other criminal gangs are now using the chaos to harm both civilians and soldiers. These “unknown gunmen” are not just enforcing sit-at-home orders, they are also involved in kidnapping, robbery, and extortion. It is becoming harder to tell the difference between activists and criminals.

Over 700 Lives Lost in Four Years

The human cost is devastating. From 2021 to 2025, there have been 332 violent incidents related to sit-at-home orders, resulting in 776 deaths. Imo State has seen the worst, with 332 lives lost, and followed by Anambra with 202. A humanitarian worker described the region as being stuck in fear and bloodshed.

Government Response Adds to the Problem

The government’s heavy-handed response has further complicated the situation. Military operations such as “Python Dance” and “Crocodile Smile” have intensified tensions across the region. According to a civil society advocate, alleged human rights abuses by security forces are fueling public resentment and driving more individuals toward radicalisation.

The upcoming SBM Intelligence report highlights how IPOB itself is now divided. Splinter groups like the one led by Simon Ekpa are operating on their own, causing even more chaos. A political expert pointed out that the original goal of freeing Nnamdi Kanu might no longer stop the violence.

What’s Next for the Southeast?

The Southeast faces a critical and worsening crisis, and it is increasingly clear that the current approach is ineffective. Experts widely concur that the use of force alone will not bring lasting stability to the region. What is urgently needed are comprehensive solutions; genuine dialogue, targeted security reforms, inclusive economic recovery initiatives, and youth engagement programs.

Until the underlying grievances, fear, and sense of marginalisation are meaningfully addressed, the cycle of violence and hardship is likely to persist. At its core, this conflict has evolved into a struggle for identity and survival. Without sustained and sincere engagement, the instability risks deepening, with consequences that could extend far beyond the region itself.