Poland's messy election drama may signal bipartisanship isn't dead

Sharp political polarization has been a defining feature of Polish politics for years, and it seemed not even a global pandemic could put an end to it.

But the need to elect a head of state may yet deliver a rare feat of bipartisanship.

When the coronavirus pandemic struck Poland in March, calls for postponing the presidential election – scheduled months ago for this coming Sunday – grew louder and louder from across the political spectrum.

However, Poland’s governing party, Law and Justice (PiS), decided to take a different approach: shift the entire election to a postal vote.

For weeks, the national-conservative party was insistent that a postal vote was the only way to hold an election during a public health crisis, batting away demands the poll be delayed.

That stance not only exacerbated the ever-present conflict with opposition parties, but also risked alienating some government supporters.

Critics feared that a hastily prepared mail-in vote process could threaten the election’s fairness, integrity and credibility.

They also argued that PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski was pushing for a May vote only to ensure victory for the incumbent, Andrzej Duda, who is supported by the party.

Once the economic consequences of the coronavirus lockdown are felt, Duda may find it harder to secure a second term, the argument runs.

The new electoral process introduced at the last minute also perhaps posed health risks for postal carriers and many voters may not receive their ballots in time. There were concerns as well that not enough safeguards were in place to the ensure the ballot secrecy.

The threat of mutiny among his own ranks forced Kaczynski, Poland’s most powerful politician, into a settlement.

Poland will not hold an election on Sunday. No polling stations will open on Sunday and no ballots distributed by post.

Then, if all goes to plan, once Sunday passes, the Supreme Court will declare the election invalid.

The speaker of the lower house will announce a new election day “at the first possible date,” Kaczynski announced on Wednesday in a joint statement with Jaroslaw Gowin, the leader of a small, but important party within Poland’s governing coalition and a sometimes-rival to Kaczynski.

An acrimonious fight within in the coalition could have triggered the collapse the Kaczynski’s government.

In the end, both politicians agreed to support Law and Justice’s postal vote bill, which the parliament approved on Thursday, but also introduce necessary amendments to it to address its biggest flaws.

After weeks of uncertainty and bickering, the agreement opened the door to a delayed mail-in election later this year.

“Kaczynski had to retreat and give up on holding the elections in May, which is his failure … but he managed to salvage the governing majority,” political analyst Antoni Dudek told dpa.

Law and Justice realized that forcing an election in May could cause it more harm than good, political scientist Jaroslaw Flis believes.

Aside from averting a crisis within the governing coalition, the Kaczynski-Gowin agreement may also invite more bipartisanship down the road.

“The postal vote process is a complicated one … There are a number of real problems to be fixed and it would be good to reach an [bipartisan] agreement,” Flis told dpa.

To date, this has not been the case.

While the postal vote bill was rushed through the Law and Justice-controlled lower house in a matter of hours back in April, the opposition-controlled Senate used up the entire 30 day period to which it was entitled to. Law and Justice cried legislative obstruction.

The crucial problem – ensuring that all parties involved accept the eventual election result – is yet to be solved, political analyst Antoni Dudek told dpa.

“The essence of democratic legitimacy is whether the losing side accepts the verdict. If not, we are dealing with a major de-stabilization and such risk still looms over Poland,” Dudek said.

Finding a bipartisan consensus for amending the postal vote bill will increase the chances of the results being accepted, he said.

Much will depend on whether Law and Justice will accept some of the opposition’s proposals, and on whether the main opposition party, centrist Civic Platform, will change its policy and will try to participate in the legislative process, Dudek said.

So far, there was no indication for that. (dpa)