Imo 2023 Governorship Elections: Independents Hold the Key

There is a scary and somber feeling of loss when you have been to war and you discover all you fought for did not matter.

The data we’ve collected on the streets paints a grim picture of how people here feel.

They’ve been to the battlefront and found that their efforts have often been in vain.

The echoes of defeat are louder than those of victory. On the streets, the majority of Imo residents feel gutted; they feel scared to even speak their truth, but we have some of their voices on record.

Principal Intel embarked on a journey across Imo State’s three senatorial zones to delve into the sentiments of its residents and understand their aspirations for the state’s leadership.

Here are the key findings that emerged from our research:

• Fear of the Known Unknown: Data on the streets coupled with recordings that cannot be released into the public domain for privacy reasons show that 50% of the residents choose to identify as independents because of the “fear of the known unknown”.

The people would rather not speak as to their preferences than to fear getting missing or being targeted in a state that has some of the highest occurrences of insecurity in the whole of southern Nigeria.

An equally significant 47% remain undecided or choose not to disclose their choices for similar reasons, and this portends huge challenges for the governor of Imo State, who is also running for reelection.

• APC’s Limited Popularity: Our data shows that only 14% of Imo residents align themselves with the APC. While this doesn’t rule out some APC support among the undecided and non-disclosing groups, the audio recordings of people on the streets suggest this isn’t a significant trend.

The data also sheds light on the disillusionment of Imo residents, with a 61% disapproval rating of the recently conducted presidential elections.

The context behind the data also reveals how beaten the people of Imo State are and how they felt about the recently conducted presidential elections in the state, which statistically has a 61% disapproval rating with 21% staying neutral.

• The Governor is unpopular: Despite the significant number of independents, undecideds, and non-disclosers, the approval rating of Governor Hope Uzodinma, an APC member seeking re-election, stands at a mere 29%.

He has the power of incumbency, but that power can only do so much to bend the will of the people who have chosen to remain independents, undecideds, and non-disclosers for their preference due to the fear that Principal Intel data might fall into the wrong hands.

• Labour Party is the dark horse: It is obvious on the streets that the people don’t want to hope. They feel powerless. Our data reveals that the Labour Party is leading in terms of those who identify with her (23%), but that’s not enough to conquer the field considering independents are on the higher side (50%).

The undecideds and non-disclosers making 47% combined, coupled with the unpopularity of the governor in terms of his job performance, makes it obvious that the Labour Party and her candidate are the dark horses, but only in a fair fight.

While the data paints a complex picture, it’s crucial to understand how Imo residents perceive other political parties, such as the PDP and APGA.

These parties have lost some of their previous popularity, as indicated by the last presidential election results. APGA, despite governing a neighbouring state (Anambra), garnered only a meagre 2% support in Imo.

This Roman Empire typology serves as a stark reminder that parties that once rose and fell may face challenges in regaining public trust.

Hope Uzodinma has a single-digit lead (5 points) over his Labour Party counterpart, Senator Athan Achonu, but contextually, that lead is an edgy one considering the fluidity of many undecideds. Labour has a party support of 23% and 17% for her candidate, and APC has a party support of 14% and 22% for her candidate, but with 50% of independents and 47% of residents that wouldn’t disclose or are undecided, we have a heavy political season on our hands in Imo State.

In summary, our Imo data offers several key insights:

• Imo State has 50% independents that can swing anyway.
• Negatively, 71% of Imo residents see the Tinubu Presidency as illegitimate, indicating the APC’s overall weakness in the state.
• 89% say their minds are made up on their choice of who they would vote for in the Imo State Government House.
• Negatively, 82% of Imo residents say they have never received government palliatives in their lives.
• Negatively, 39% of Imo residents oppose the current governor’s performance, while 31% remain neutral or undecided.

In conclusion, in context and in accordance with all the data available to Principal Intel, we cannot confidently project this election for any of the two leading candidates in Imo State, but we can confidently project that this election would be highly tense considering the context of prevalent insecurity in the state and the incumbent governor, who is seeking re-election and will be willing to employ every resource to return to office for an eight-year run. The fairness and integrity of the election will be critical factors, as well as the determination of the people to make their voices heard in this crucial political battle.

Principal Intel is a Political Data Research Firm