Ecobank Shares Slide Despite Analyst Optimism, Debt Overhang Persists

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated’s stock slipped to N36.00 at the close of last week’s trading on the Nigerian Exchange, dragging its market capitalisation down to N660.58 billion, even as investment firms maintained bullish calls on the Pan-African lender.

The decline comes despite a 30.54 per cent year-to-date gain, with the stock struggling to break past its 52-week ceiling of N39.25.

Analysts at Apel Asset Limited valued Ecobank at N104.30 per share, projecting a 185 per cent upside, while CardinalStone Securities Limited set a 12-month target of N46.41, just 28.9 per cent above its current reference price. But the stock’s inability to hold momentum has left investors cautious.

Beyond share price weakness, concerns remain over the group’s $200 million promissory notes due in 2027. Although Ecobank redeemed $50 million in May 2025 and has scheduled another $50 million for 2026 before the final $100 million in 2027, the phased repayments underline a heavy debt overhang that could weigh on future earnings.

Ecobank posted a 22.7 per cent rise in profit after tax to $278.8 million in the first half of 2025, supported by stronger net interest and non-interest revenues. However, analysts warned that debt repayments, coupled with fragile sentiment around African financial markets, may continue to cap near-term gains in its share price.