Crocodile Smile may worsen economic recession, capital market woes

Some economic experts have warned against plunging the country into prolonged economic depression through the use of military action in the Nigeria Delta tagged “Operation Crocodile smile.”

They argued that the consequences of sustained “operation crocodile smile” could be bitter or sweet.

While only few supported the action, others warned that the military action in Niger Delta, Nigeria’s oil rich region could be counterproductive as it has the likelihood of degenerating and worsening already depressed economy.

Investigations also revealed that many people in the Niger Delta region have embarked on mass withdrawal from banks while exploring other alternatives for relocation.

Analysts said the development would crumble the economy of the region and force financial institutions and other business concerns in the area to close down.

Mr. David Lambert Adonri of Hicap Securities Limited, a Lagos based investment firm told Daily Time that the current military action on the Niger Delta Militants would either make or further mar the nation’s economy.

The Daily Times recall that the Nigerian Army had on Saturday, September 3, displayed some of its sophisticated weapons as part of its on-going exercise in the Operation Crocodile Smile in the Niger Delta region.

The rise of militancy in the region led to bombing of oil and gas pipelines that has affected the economy.

In reaction, the army initiated Operation Crocodile Smile which is meant to train troops in amphibious operation and also protect the region in other to curb militancy.

“The market would react based on the turn of event, if crude oil is restored to its normal level and supply of gas restored to plants, the economy recovers and everything put in shape, the market will react positively, but  if the situation detorates, then the market would react very negatively” Adonri said.

Adonri said that while he will never support the use of  violence by people to settle grievances, a military action in that area would be counterproductive hence the war in the region is like a gorilla war, not targeted at human beings but at economic infrastructure.

He also argued that it would be very difficult for the army to police the whole infrastructure in the region, stressing that difficulty led to informed arguments against the use of force in the Niger Delta region.

The stockbroker said that while economic hardship in the Nigeria delta region and Nigeria may worsen as a result of the development, dialogue remain the best option.

“I don’t think that the possibility of success is very high and this may make the recovery from recession very difficult. It also is going to further affect petroleum infrastructure and general security in that area”

He expressed concern that the development may lead to “very brutal civil war because those boys are battle tested”.

He said that it has been alleged that the militant have sophisticated weapons with which they could mount very serious resistance and where this happens the economy would suffer.

According to him, war is expensive as it involves both human and economic consequences and at the end, round table would always be the place for settlement after high costs of human and material casualties.

President of the Chartered Institute of Stock Brokers (CIS), Mr. Oluwaseyi Abbey said that the Niger Delta has remained controvercial over a long period following the activities of militants in the area.

Abbey said that the expressed concerns and postulations that increased crude oil production and its attendant positive impact on the economy informed the government’s current military action in the region.

He also suggested increased dialogue and roundtable political discussions in resolving the Niger Dealt protracted question.