Coronavirus not going to stop until 60 to 70% of humans are infected – experts

Some health experts have said that the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the world will not stop until about 70% of the world population are infected.

Mike Osterholm of Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, told CNN This thing’s not going to stop until it infects 60 to 70 percent of people,”

He went on to say that “The idea that this is going to be done soon defies microbiology.”

Because Covid-19 is new, no one has any immunity, they said. “The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population,” Osterholm Dr. Kristine Moore, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologist who is now medical director for CIDRAP; and historian John Barry, who wrote the 2004 book “The Great Influenza” about the 1918 flu pandemic wrote.

Robots on hand to greet Japanese coronavirus patients in hotels

They presented some scenarios

Three scenarios are possible, they said: Scenario 1: The first wave of Covid-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a one- to two-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021Scenario

2: The first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter and one or more smaller waves in 2021. “This pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed,” they wrote. “This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic.”

Scenario 3: A “slow burn” of ongoing transmission. “This third scenario likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur.”States and territories should plan for scenario 2, the worst-case scenario, they recommended.”Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur,” they advised.Lipsitch and Osterholm both said they are surprised by the decisions many states are making to lift restrictions aimed at controlling the spread of the virus.