What Happens Next with North Korea
Early this week, a news site in Seoul reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had undergone heart surgery. CNN and Reuters picked up the story, sending speculation rampant.
As the coronavirus has quickly reclaimed our total attention, the world is left wondering two things: what’s the actual state of Kim’s health, and how much does it really matter?
Let’s start with the fact that there is no way to know what the real situation is with Kim’s health.
South Korea has been downplaying the reports for the last few days, saying it has detected “no unusual developments” in the country; but Pyongyang, which is quick to issue denials of news stories it takes even the slightest issue with, has been noticeably silent.
In a pre-Covid-19 world, Kim Jong-un was a comparatively significant world leader on stage, in the sense that he controlled a rogue nuclear power.
Well, almost rogue—while North Korea likes to present itself as a self-sufficient power in its own right that can go toe-to-toe with Western powers, the reality is that the Hermit Kingdom relies heavily on China.
As recently as 2017, China was responsible for 90 percent of North Korea’s trade.
China has been acting as a sort of check on North Korea for decades now, both out of political/ideological solidarity and for fear that a regime collapse would send thousands of refugees streaming across Chinese borders.
And with Donald Trump’s arrival on the political stage, China’s sway over North Korea became yet one more lever for Beijing to use in its evolving rivalry with the U.S.
The end result was U.S.-North Korean nuclear talks that were more flash than substance. That’s where they’ve remained since.
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On that front, Kim’s incapacitation or even death would have a sizeable impact, as Trump would suddenly lose his main interlocutor.
But Kim was never serious about nuclear disarmament, just as the Trump administration was never seriously pushing for such comprehensive measures.
And all that was before coronavirus hit and the U.S. presidential election was in full swing, which Trump will need to win for these talks to pick back up again.
