OPEC weighs August output boost as it targets market share recovery

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is considering a fresh production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August to reclaim global market share lost during earlier output cuts, four delegates told Reuters.

If approved, the hike would raise the group’s total supply increase this year to 1.78 million bpd—over 1.5 per cent of global oil demand. However, actual increases have lagged as some members offset past overproduction while others struggle to restore capacity.

OPEC+ has reversed years of deep cuts—more than 5 million bpd—by accelerating output hikes since April. Eight member states began phasing out their share of a 2.2 million bpd cut, despite the added supply weighing on prices.

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Internal tensions persist, with Kazakhstan’s overproduction frustrating more compliant members. The ramp-up follows rival producers like the U.S. increasing output during the cut period.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin expects a rising demand this summer. Analysts at Energy Aspects and RBC Capital Markets project the 411,000 bpd hike will proceed. However, some sources say a larger increase could be discussed.

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OPEC+ ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq and others will meet on July 6 to finalise the decision.

Meanwhile, the potential return of Iranian oil following its ceasefire with Israel adds uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump has signalled a possible easing of sanctions enforcement to aid Iran’s recovery.

Prices hit a five-month high of $81 on June 23 after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but dropped to $68 as tensions cooled.

By July, the OPEC+ eight had committed to restoring 1.37 million bpd—about 62 per cent of their 2.2 million bpd cut. The UAE is adding 300,000 bpd, pushing the total hike to 2.5 million bpd.