Bayelsa: A straight battle between PDP and APC

To many people election year is a period for them to redesign their destinies and chose a path that will lead them into the future they desire, either by choosing to follow a familiar lane or opting for another that may better serve them.

November 16 will be one date that will be remain evergreen in the riverine state of Bayelsa, because that day the people of the state will take a critical decision about their future when they will be electing a governor to replace the incumbent, Hon. Seriake Dickson after eight years of eventful reign.

However, choosing a successor for Dickson though may look like a simple task, as have been done in many states of the Federation, but many people are afraid that the Bayelsa election may end up being anything but simple.

 There is fears that if not well managed the election may end up like a possible war as many of those who are repentant war lords and former militants are already joining camps and possibly put together arms and ammunitions to prosecute the election.

Already the Independent national Electoral Commission (INEC) has cleared 45 political parties to present candidates to contest the election and everything has been put in place to deliver an election that the people of the state can be proud of, it should however be emphasized that while many pof the candidates are pretenders to the seat, only two, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Senator Douye Diri and that of the All Progressives Congress (APC) David Lyon stands any chance in the race.

Though it may not be easy to understand the politics that played out in Bayelsa State when Douye Diri, a former member of the House of Representatives and now a Senator, emerged as the flag bearer of the PDP, and even how David Lyon won the primaries of the APC, after Timipre Sylva, a former governor and now Minister of State for Petroleum quit the race for the party’s flag, following his appointment, both of them still stands better chance to emerge the next governor of the state than any of the other 43 candidates.

Diri, the 60 years old Senator from Kolokuma/Opokuma area of the State, before joining active politics taught in several government schools in the rural areas of the old Rivers State and was the First National Organising Secretary of the Ijaw National Congress (INC), the foremost organisation of the Ijaw Nation.

He was also the Executive Secretary, Centre for Youth Development in Bayelsa State between 2000 and 2002 and later the Commissioner for Youth and Sports (2005-2006) before his appointment as Council Member, University of Maiduguri (2008-2012).

 He was also the Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Disciplinary Council, Bayelsa State (2012). In 2012, when Dickson emerged as the governor of the state, he was appointed the Deputy Chief of Staff, Government House, 2012 and the Principal Executive Secretary (2013-2014).

Diri won elections to the House of Representatives to represent Kolokuma/Opokuma, and Yenagoa Federal Constituency, 2015, and he is presently a Senator.

Besides that Diri has a good track record to stand his own anywhere, it must also be emphasized that the PDP remains the party to beat in Bayelsa State, considering that the party has been in power in the state since 1999 and has the support of the incumbent governor, Dickson and former President Goodluck Jonathan, who though has not been too visible during the run-off to this election, will not want to sit by while an opposition political party take the state.

The APC candidate David Lyon on the other hand is not known to have played active party politics before emerging as the party’s flag bearer. It is believed that Lyon’s entry into the race altered the political calculations for the APC.

Political observers are of the view that aside being a business man and oil contractor, Lyon has not held any political office apart from being a community youth leader and chairman of Rural Development Area, arguing that he lacks the requisite experience expected for the position of an executive governor.

Moreover, apart from being a close associate of Sylva, they argued that he is not a party man and lacks the personality clout of a governor as he is barely heard in public. But his ardent supporters, including the party hierarchy, ex-militant leaders, and of course the leader of the party Chief Sylva and his foot soldiers are convinced that he remains the only one that can challenge the PDP establishment

Diri from permutations is as good as getting the office, which informed his demand on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to be an unbiased umpire and the security agencies to be professional during the election, when he said, “We have a fight ahead of us but I don’t see our opponents as being so strong on ground to defeat the PDP.

“If we have a free, fair and transparent election, the APC cannot win even a councillorship election in Bayelsa State. It is all the hype about federal might by using security apparatus to intimidate or using INEC to write results. Our appeal is that the security agencies must be professional. INEC must remain an unbiased umpire. If there is that fair playing field, the opponents are neither here nor there to contest in this election,” said Diri.

But Lyon is confident that he would win the November 16 election with the sole mission of accelerating development in Bayelsa so as to attract investments.

Lyon, though not known beyond his surveillance and oil pipelines security contract with multi nationals, has equally stated that his desire for the development of Bayelsa was the reason why all his business investments are located in the state and that he yearns for the development of infrastructures which would attract huge investments, make business thrive and create wealth in the state.

Even as many believe that he does not have the capacity to govern the state, he dismissed the claims while stating that his political team is ready to sell his vision to make life better for all Bayelsans.

Lyon said: “My team is 100 per cent ready. I have been in politics for long. I have also contested elections in the past. I am a politician, as well as a businessman. But somehow, I became a bigger businessman because of hard work, God’s blessings and my managerial skills. I also spend a lot of my time building my political relationships. So, I didn’t just enter politics today.”

Despite the grandstanding of both candidates however, it appears that going by the people’s opinion on that Bayelsans still believe so much in PDP in spite of the fact that the APC is in control at the federal level and seems to be using that as an advantage to win election.

An earlier impression that the APC will use the federal might to take over Bayelsa State come November 16 seems not to be a determining factor as discussions with some notable Bayelsans indicates that the PDP has over 65 percent probability to win the election if it will be conducted on a level playing ground without massive rigging.

Some opinion leaders have asserted that even though the APC is in control of the security agencies and INEC, the outcome of the election will not be determined by the level of threat and intimidation being alleged on the ruling party at the center.

According to Hon. Felix Ebizimo, who spoke to Daily Times, Bayelsans will always see APC as another means by President Muhammadu Buhari trying to influence the Ijaw people to take control of the Niger Delta region and their resources.

He also dismissed the fact that the PDP government in Bayelsa have not performed as expected in the last seven and half years in terms of good governance, welfare of the people, infrastructure and economic development, the people are not actually interested in that anymore, “that sentiment in favor of PDP has and will always be there.”

Nevertheless, Bayelsans seems to be more focused on the party that has benefitted the Ijaws the most as a people having made reference to the former President, Goodluck Jonathan who ruled the country under the PDP as a minority for six years as well as the presidential amnesty program that have benefitted the Niger Delta youths under the Yar’Adua’s administration.

Chief Ebitari Shedrack said, “People who think that PDP will lose this election should not be deceived. Ijaws in Bayelsa see PDP as their own party whether Dickson is doing well or not. I said this because it is PDP that have benefitted Bayelsans the most right from the inception of democracy and the fact that Jonathan became president under PDP, it will be difficult to change their mind.”

Another factor that will also determine the permutation is the political structure in the state. Some analysts believe that the PDP has more structure in terms of political appointments- commissioners, special advisers, senior special assistants, heads of state government agencies and chairmen of rural development authorities, made by Gov. Henry Seriake Dickson which cut across the eight local government areas.

In addition, the PDP won 19 seats out of the 23 seats that make up the Bayelsa State House of Assembly during the last general election. Also, the PDP won all the eight local government areas as well as the 105 councilorship positions during the recently conducted local government election.

Also, some political observers are of the view that the chances of either the APC or PDP winning the governorship election is fifty-fifty, having alleged that the highest bidder will take the day. This implies that the outcome of the election will be determined by financial inducement as there will be a high level of vote buying on the day of the election.

According to Fidelis Oyadongha, the PDP has the financial strength to win the election haven been in power for the past seven years. He said, “Dickson has been in office since 2011 and has been in control of the state allocation even till now as we speak. One thing you have to understand is that this election is very important to Dickson and he will do everything it takes to deliver this state to PDP.”

In spite of the foregoing, some observers still believe that the APC have the structures on ground to win the election in their own capacity, especially in the rural areas going by the turnouts during their campaigns in the local government areas. They alleged that the mammoth crowd that comes out to welcome the APC campaign team is an indication that the people have lost confidence in PDP.

A political stakeholder who pleaded anonymity said, “When you compare the campaigns of PDP and APC you will understand the direction which the election is going. APC does not go to a particular local government for campaigns with so many buses filled with supporters from another local government like the PDP does. The large crowd you see during APC campaigns are members of those communities and local government and not hired crowd.”

Though many political observers are of the strong belief that the PDP stands a better chance to win the election, it must however be said that politics is not mathematics with precise answers, surprises remain part of the game and Bayelsa will not be any different.