Nigeria needs 22% annual growth to achieve $1trn economy by 2030-Norrenberger

With less than five years to the 2030 deadline, analysts at Norrenberger have warned that Nigeria must sustain annual nominal growth of at least 22 per cent alongside a stable exchange rate to achieve the Federal Government’s $1 trillion economy target.

According to the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the first quarter of 2025, the Nigerian economy grew by 3.13 per cent in real terms, an improvement from the 2.27 per cent growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

However, in its H2 2025 Economic Outlook Report, Norrenberger noted that Nigeria’s growth trajectory, averaging around four per cent in real terms and 15 per cent in nominal terms annually, falls far below the pace required to meet the 2030 target set by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.

NBS data puts nominal GDP at N364.6 trillion for 2024, compared to the pre-rebased figure of N269.3 trillion. As of 2024, Nigeria’s rebased nominal GDP stood at approximately $237.5 billion, a sharp decline from $589.6 billion in 2022 and $341.2 billion in 2023. Analysts attributed this steep drop, despite moderate growth in naira terms, to the significant depreciation of the local currency.

“Our analysis suggests that to realistically attain a $1 trillion economy by 2030, Nigeria would need annual nominal growth of at least 22 per cent while also stabilising the exchange rate at or below N1,200 to the dollar,” Norrenberger said.

The firm stressed that achieving the $1 trillion milestone will require more than optimistic projections, urging coordinated and transformative policy action between the public and private sectors. It pointed to Indonesia as a model, noting that over the past 25 years, the Asian country transitioned from a volatile emerging economy into a $1 trillion market by averaging nearly nine per cent growth annually.

Norrenberger highlighted exchange rate management, massive infrastructure investment, export diversification, industrial policy, human capital development, and anti-corruption reforms as essential lessons Nigeria could adopt.

The rebased GDP data reflected new sectoral contributions, expanded data sources, and the inclusion of emerging activities. Both oil and non-oil sectors contributed to growth in Q1 2025, with the non-oil sector expanding by 3.19 per cent, outpacing the oil sector’s 1.87 per cent. Services led with 4.33 per cent growth, driven by robust activity in transportation, ICT, and financial services.

The industrial sector also grew by 3.42 per cent, supported by oil refining, construction, and electricity generation, while agriculture posted the weakest performance at 0.07 per cent due to contraction in livestock.

For 2025, Norrenberger projects average real GDP growth of 4.05 per cent, underpinned by positive momentum in banking recapitalisation, agriculture with favourable weather conditions, telecommunications revenue gains from higher tariffs, and large-scale government infrastructure investments.