Election or War?

On December 11, 2014, incumbent president Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and former Head of State, Major General Muhammadu Buhari officially emerged the candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) respectively.

The first thing to note about this fixture is the inability of the Nigerian political space to throw up any surprises. The 2011 contest was mainly between the duo with the then Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN) which has now fused into the APC, as a fringe contestant. At the close of polls in 2011, President Jonathan garnered 18 million votes with the required spread across the country while Gen. Buhari had 12 million votes most of which were from the 12 states which introduced the sharia legal system during the Olusegun Obasanjo civilian administration.The map of that result was frightening enough for any discerning observer of the future of Nigeria as it signposted all our fault lines.It was also significant that the outcome led to widespread and extremely violent protests in the strongholds of General Buhari with attendant loss of lives and property.The prospect of the two candidates squaring up for another contest four years after is a red flag that is scary for the continued corporate existence of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. In the two candidates are rolled all what pundits have predicted may make the continuity of Nigeria as is a mirage beyond 2015.President Jonathan is of Ijaw extraction where the country garners the bulk of its revenue and his region having a shot at the presidency of Nigeria for the first time. The spokespersons of the region have made clear statements that the increased spate of insurgency in the North East and spiraling to the North West is a calculated attempt by the “we want our power back” group to flush the “virus” that entered the “power” computer with a vow to resist any attempt to stampede him out of office.General Buhari is of the Fulani stock that has not hidden its desire to take control of the presidency in 2015.The speed at which Atiku Abubakar conceded defeat to Buhari after the APC primaries is a clear testimony of this resolve of unanimity of purpose. And in less than 24 hours the Arewa Consultative Forum and the Northern Elders Forum claimed Buhari victory for the North.In another fiesta, Jonathan is a southern Christian while Buhari is a northern Muslim largely perceived as a fundamentalist though he has always explained that the pure Islam he practices is not one that borders on extremism.When you take all the above together with the state of siege that the activities of the dreaded Boko Haram have created in the last few years, with its attendant culture of fear and suspicion, it’s almost certain that the 2015 elections would be fought along the fault lines of region and religion.It is a sad reality we have to face that our failure to address the issues of nationhood over the years would make issuebased campaigns secondary in the February war which we pretentiously call elections.If we had a political class that has a sense of mission and cares about the future of this country, what we should be doing at the moment is to implement the reports of the justconcluded National Conference so as to lower tension before holding elections.It does not appear that that would happen as our politicians have put powergrabbing far above the fate of the polity.Ironically, we are going to hold the elections on Valentine’s Day, which is supposed to be about celebration of love but parading all our hate features? Will Nigeria survive this impending war? Lets keep our fingers crossed!

*this was published in the Daily Times newspaper dated: Monday, December 15, 2014