Air cargo demand softens as passenger traffic surges in September

By Chukwuemeke Iwelunmo

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says global air cargo business for September 2022 has dropped in cargo markets.

IATA noted that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), fell 10.6 per cent compared to September 2021 (-10.6% also for international operations), but continued to track at near pre-pandemic levels (-3.6%).

It explained that capacity was 2.4 per cent above September 2021 (+5.0% for international operations) but still 7.4% below September 2019 levels (-8.1% for international operations).

According to IATA, several factors in the operating environment were responsible for the drop adding that following contractions across major economies, the global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for new export orders also contracted (lfor a third month in a row to its lowest level in two years.

“Latest global goods trade figures showed a 5.2 per cent expansion in August, a positive sign for the global economy. This is expected to primarily benefit maritime cargo, with a slight boost to air cargo as well. Oil prices remained stable in September and the jet fuel crack spread fell from a peak in June”.

It stated that the Consumer Price Index stabilized in G7 countries in September, but at a decade’s high level of 7.7 per cent. Inflation in producer (input) prices slowed to 13.7per cent in August, DailyTimesNGR gathered.

“While air cargo’s activity continues to track near to 2019 levels, volumes remain below 2021’s exceptional performance as the industry faces some headwinds. At the consumer level, with travel restrictions lifting post-pandemic, people are likely to spend more on vacation travel and less on e-commerce. And at the macro-level, increasing recession warnings are likely to have a negative impact on the global flows of goods and services, balanced slightly by a stabilization of oil prices.

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“Against this backdrop, air cargo is bearing up well. And a strategic slow-down in capacity growth from 6.3 per cent in August to 2.4per cent in September demonstrates the flexibility the industry has in adjusting to economic developments,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Meanwhile, IATA has announced passenger data for September 2022 showing that the recovery in air travel continues to be strong.

Total traffic in September 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) rose 57.0 per cent compared to September 2021. Globally, traffic is now at 73.8 per cent of September 2019 levels.

Domestic traffic for September 2022 was up 6.9 per cent compared to the year-ago period. Total September 2022 domestic traffic was at 81per cent of the September 2019 level.