2019 polls: Expectations as PDP meets APC defectors

…Lawmakers’ defection won’t affect Buhari’s re-election- Presidency
…Why I dumped ruling party- Gov Ortom
As the leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) sets to round off its meetings with members of the National Assembly who recently defected from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the PDP, expectations are high that at the end of the day, the outcome of the meeting will open doors for more members of the APC from both chambers of the National Assembly and some more governors and many members of their state legislature will also join the PDP.

This is even so as most of the lawmakers who defected to the PDP already had assurances from the party that their positions will be guaranteed, despite threats from some state leadership of the PDP that some of the defectors may not be accommodated within the party as they had already concluded arrangements on the sharing formula for positions before the new development

But sources with the PDP say that despite the threat from such state leadership to shut out some defectors, the National leadership of the party is doing everything to ensure that nothing is left to chance in their bid to win the 2019 election, including overriding the interest of some members of the party in the state for national interest.

The Daily Times recalls that 32 members of the APC at the House of Representatives and 14 senators had on Tuesday defected from the APC to the PDP.

While the Governor of Benue State, Dr. Samuel Ortom, has also left the APC for the PDP and the governor of Kwara State, Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed also gave hints that he too will soon move, not to talk about other governors waiting by the wings to make their move, the situation is said to be critical for the APC.

Though President Muhammadu Buhari while reacting to the defection from the APC in the National Assembly said it would not impact negatively on the party, and the National Chairman of APC, Adams Oshiomhole saying he will not lose sleep over it, the impact of the defection is already actually telling on the party, as it is now working round the clock to either ensure that some of those who already left are lured back and also ensure more members do not leave the broom party.

The defection, it is believed, was more out of frustration that many of the lawmakers, even the governor suffered during the recently concluded party congresses of the APC across the states, which were said to either be hijacked by the governors, thereby effectively shutting out the lawmakers or even by some party big wigs in the state and even shutting out the governors.

A source told one of our correspondents that efforts by many of these lawmakers to either get assurances from their governors of secured political future or get the national leadership of the party, including the presidency to get such assurances yielded not much result, which eventually necessitated the move, when they got assurances from the PDP that their interest will be taken care in the scheme of things.

Confiding in The Daily Times, a top ranking member in the PDP said already many of the National Assembly members have relocated to their constituencies to give effect to the assurances and ensure that nothing is left to chance at the home front, because as the source said, politics is local, it is not all political battles that can be fought from the centre and expect it to succeed.

The source, who spoke in confidence, said, “ I can tell you authoritatively that the meetings so far held with the defectors by the leadership of the PDP have been so encouraging as they are now confident that their ability to return to the National Assembly in 2019 will depend solely on the rapour with their constituencies, as the party has almost guaranteed them their return tickets.”

Confirming that the PDP have been having fruitful meetings with the defectors, the National Vice Chairman of the PDP, South West, Dr. Eddy Olafeso, told The Daily Times that the party has been having regular meetings with the defectors.

Though Olafeso would not say when exactly the next meeting with them will be, he disclosed that, “It is the internal responsibility of the party and we are not going to publish what we are doing behind the doors to encourage those who want to join our party to be able to win in 2019.

“We are doing our own duty and those who are joining us are aware of it, none of them is left behind, we just want to create an enabling environment for us to be united to produce a more formidable government of national unity in 2019.

“We are meeting consistently and we are meeting regularly, we do not have to put the timetable before the public, we are not duty bound to do that.

The South West Chairman of the PDP also used the opportunity to speak on the controversy over the PDP governorship candidate in the September governorship election in Osun State, Senator Ademola Adeleke, whose candidacy is being challenged in court by Rasheed Olabayo and Oluwaseun Idowu, both members of the PDP, over alleged irregularities in his academic qualifications.

According to Olafeso, the issue of the candidacy of Senator Adeleke for the governorship race is long concluded and only the court can change that decision.

His words: “We have already sent his name to INEC even before the court case. Since we have already presented his name long before the court case, do you expect that because the case is in court we should withdraw it?

It is a mere allegation and we have already taken an action, it is left for the court to say no we submitted in error or not, it is not for me to say that we are withdrawing it.”

Meanwhile, the Presidency has said that the defection of Senators and House of Representatives members in the National Assembly will not in any way prevent President Muhammadu Buhari from winning the 2019 Presidential election.

According to the Presidency, the latest defections by some National Assembly members and that of Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom will not harm the re-election of President Buhari in the 2019 general election.

The Director, Strategic Communications for President Muhammadu Buhari’s 2019 presidential election, Mr Festus Keyamo, SAN, on Sunday, stated that this would even be so if the much-rumoured two more Governors also defect from the APC.

Keyamo reiterated that the President won with large margins in the past in some states without the support of majority of the politicians from those states who moved recently to join the opposition party.

He said, “Also, we are all witnessing the significant gains Mr. President is making in several places where he lost in the past, notably in the South-South and South-East.

“From the demographics we have now, the historic figures and the present realities that we know, these defections will have little or no impact on the chances of Mr. President’s re-election.”

The campaign spokesman of Buhari re-election listed four basic reasons the defections would not affect President Buhari’s second term ambition:

“12 states – Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe and Niger, with over 30 million registered voters, as states the President had consistently won with considerable large margins in past elections, especially in 2011 and 2015.

“This was achieved despite the fact that most of those states were being controlled by political parties other than his own.”

He further maintained that in 2011, when the President was in CPC, despite being states with sitting opposition Governors, National Assembly members, State Assembly members and Local Government Chairmen, the President posted close to eleven million votes against all odds, defeating all his rivals in these twelve states mentioned above.

He said, “In 2015 despite the majority of these states being in opposition after the merger that formed the APC, the President posted close to eleven million votes again in these states with PDP not scoring up to twenty percent of the votes in most of these states.

It is instructive that in these election cycles there were presidential candidates of Northern extraction (e.g. Shekarau and Ribadu in 2011). Besides, Kaduna had a sitting Vice President in both elections.

“As we can see, any defection within these states would have little or no consequence on President Muhammadu Buhari’s chances as he had always won those states, irrespective of the party in power in those states.

For example in the much-touted Kano, in the 2011 Presidential election, President Buhari scored One Million, Six Hundred and Twenty Four Thousand, Five Hundred and Forty Three (1,624,543) votes as CPC candidate, while in 2015, he had 1,903,999 One Million, Nine Hundred and Three Thousand, Nine Hundred and Ninety Nine (1,903,999) votes as APC candidate.

The vote difference of about Two Hundred and Eighty Thousand (280,000) votes may be attributed to elements of ANPP, negligible ACN and Senator Kwakwanso, then Governor of the State that came into APC.

“Today, the President’s popularity in these states has increased due to the fight against Boko Haram which has been largely successful. So, he should expect more votes from these strongholds, it added.

The Presidency also listed the following nine states, Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Kwara, Kogi, Adamawa and Benue as states the President lost in 2011 but won in 2015.

Keyamo said: “The five south-western states have registered voters strength of more than 14 million out of the about 20 million voters in these nine states. Today, those five states are being controlled by the APC.

Ekiti will join before the 2019 election after Governor Kayode Fayemi is sworn in for a second term in office. All the political gladiators in those south-western states that helped to tilt the election in favour of the President in 2015 are still solidly with him and more have joined.

“The entire defunct ACN structures that moved into APC are solidly behind the President. In terms of defections in the western states, the party has gained more than it has lost as the likes of Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, Senator (Mrs.) Fatima Raji-Rasaki, Prince Dayo Adeyeye, Aremo Olusegun Osoba, Senator Gbenga Kaka, former Governor Adebayo Akala, to mention a few, are now with APC.

“To underscore the rising profile of the party in these states, the people of Ondo State and Ekiti State decided to entrust their states in the hands of the APC by voting out the previous PDP governments. Furthermore, these states are well represented in government with a sitting Vice President, important ministerial portfolios and prominent membership of the economic team. So, we can only expect more votes, not less, from the west.

“Adamawa, Kwara, Kogi and Benue states, with over 6 million registered voters, all had Governors from other parties in 2011, with Senator Bukola Saraki being the PDP governor of Kwara State.

In the four states, as the Presidential Candidate of CPC, the President posted six hundred and seventy thousand eighty (670,080) votes while ACN the other legacy party of APC posted three hundred and fourteen thousand seven hundred and forty one (314,741) votes, making a total of nine hundred and eighty four thousand seven hundred and forty one (984,741) votes when combined.

“In 2015, with only one APC Governor among the four states, the President posted total votes of one million three hundred and fifteen thousand six hundred and fifty nine (1,315,659) in the four states, gaining over three hundred and thirty thousand (330,000) votes. Today, with APC in charge of three out of the four states,

especially with Senator Gbemi Saraki and Alhaji Lai Mohammed, Minister of Information, leading the efforts in Kwara State and the APC Structure in Benue State still firmly in the hands of Senator George Akume (the same structure on which Governor Ortom rode to victory), the defection of the Senators from these states will have little or no effect on the difference gained”.

“The President lost 15 states (comprising 11 States of the South East and South South and Plateau, Taraba, Nassarawa and Ekiti States) in the 2015 elections, despite his overall victory.

“Apart from having Governors in Edo and Imo States, the exemplary work of the President in the South East and South South, especially in terms of infrastructural developments, like the Second Niger bridge and a whole lot of road constructions, APC is on the rise in these States and this momentum will surely rub off on the electoral fortunes of the President.

“This can be seen in the high level defections to the APC in the last three years in these states and more are coming. The recent election in Anambra is also a testimony to the rising profile of the party in the east.

In 2015 the President scored 17,926 votes in Anambra. The most recent Governorship election saw APC come second with over 98,000 votes, defeating PDP in the process.

This is a pattern we expect in the 2019 elections throughout the South East and South South as, compared to the last elections. The President can only amass more votes from these regions and not less than 2015.

“In the remaining four states of Ekiti, Plateau, Taraba and Nassarawa, where the President lost in the 2015 election with a margin of 260,000, all the states had sitting opposition Governors except Nassarawa.

Ekiti and Plateau States will have sitting APC Governors in February 2019 to help sell his candidacy and we have also seen defection of some serving and past Senators from Ekiti State to the APC. With this we expect a reduction in the margin or an outright victory.

“Even if there are going to be defections from APC in these four States, we don’t see the margin of loss expanding beyond the 260,000 given that the States had majority opposition Governors at the point the President suffered these loses. “

“Whilst the PDP harvest of defections is gradually winding down, the harvest of the APC is about to begin in respect of the following: Disgruntled members from the opposition whose structures are bound to be marginalised as a fall out of the absorption and recognition of the structures of the incoming defectors by the national bodies of the various parties.”

Keyamo also said that dissatisfied members whose aspirations are thwarted because of automatic tickets given to the defectors “are talking to us already.”

Disgruntled elements from the fallout of the primaries of the parties, especially the main opposition party, he added.

He said, “It is noteworthy that President Muhammadu Buhari is going into this election as an incumbent enjoying the support of a lot more Governors, Senators, House of Representatives” members, House of Assembly members and Local Government Chairmen than he ever had.

“Equally the odds are no more stacked up against the President as he will see to a truly free and fair election as witnessed in elections conducted in the last three years. We expect the soaring popularity of the President to be reflected in the 2019 elections.

“The PDP may claim that these figures count for nothing and that the President has been tested in the last three years and found wanting.

However, in the last three years, what has been more exposed and Nigerians have seen is the extent of damage inflicted on the country in the last sixteen years by PDP, damage the President and his team are working tirelessly to fix.

“No matter the impatience some Nigerians have shown with Buhari, they just don’t want to GO BACK to PDP. That is why PDP have lost ALL the critical electoral contests since 2015 (Kogi, Edo, Anambra, Ekiti and Ondo States),” Keyamo stated.

The presidency maintained that “in the final analyses, despite all the noise from our ‘noisy neighbours’, we may be in for a landslide victory for the President in 2019.”

Meanwhile, Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom, has explained that his defection from the APC was in rejection of a political party which treats the killing of his people with kid gloves and showed no remorse.

Governor Ortom, who stated this on Sunday during a thanksgiving mass organised for him at St. Michael’s Catholic Rectory Ameladu, posited that he is being persecuted by the Federal Government and his former political party, APC, because he refused to surrender Benue land to terrorists’ herders.

He noted that the agenda of the invaders was not for grazing but to take over the land from the real owners, stressing that he would never be party to such evil agenda.

Governor Ortom reassured the people of the state of his administration’s commitment to protecting their interests no matter the level of intimidation and threats.

He acknowledged the spiritual and humanitarian works of the priest in-charge of the Rectory, Rev. Fr. Emmanuel Asue, noting that the clergy’s interventions in health, education and empowerment had greatly complemented the efforts of his government.

In his sermon, Rev. Fr. Asue urged those God has blessed to always assist the needy and charged Christians not to allow material things to hinder them from inheriting the kingdom of God, adding that they should rather use their material possessions as a stepping stone to make Heaven.

Meanwhile, a member of the House of Representatives, representing Oshodi/Isolo Federal Constituency of Lagos State, Hon Tony Nwulu, has explained why he defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the United Progressive Party (UPP) when majority of his colleagues last Tuesday defected from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the PDP.

Nwulu, who hails from Imo State, in an interview, said that politics in whatever shape is local and as such he believes the UPP will be a better party that would support his political future.

The lawmaker, who promoted the recently endorsed Not Too Young to Run bill, said: “l needed to leave PDP now because of my governorship ambition and the fact that the Imo State chapter of the party is currently saturated by recycled politicians who don’t like the face of young men like me.

“I know that any attempt for me to remain I may not have this kind of opportunity again and if you recall just last April, all the youths in Imo State stormed the National Assembly to encourage me to run so I cannot afford to disappoint the youth.”

He said that his defection was as a result of irreconcilable conflicts in the PDP and is in accordance with Section 68 1(g) of the 1999 Constitution as amended.

Asked why he chose to pitch camp with the UPP, he said that “besides having a governorship ambition, the new platform was a better party to achieve my political ambition in Imo State”.