World Bank sees Nigeria’s current account surplus hitting 9.4% by 2026

BY MOTOLANI OSENI

Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to rise to 9.4 per cent of GDP by 2026, up from an estimated 9.2 per cent in 2024, according to the World Bank’s April 2025 Africa’s Pulse report. The improvement is attributed to the continued depreciation of the naira, which has curbed imports and boosted remittances, strengthening the country’s external position.

The Central Bank of Nigeria reported a significant increase in the country’s current and capital accounts, which recorded a surplus of $17.22 billion in 2024, compared to $2.59 billion in 2023. A major driver of this growth was the trade balance, as a rebound in exports and a fall in imports combined to deliver a strong trade surplus.

Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole saw its current account deficit narrow to 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2024 from 3.4 per cent in 2023. However, the World Bank expects the regional deficit to widen again to 2.9 per cent by 2026, reflecting ongoing global trade disruptions and softer commodity prices. While oil-exporting nations like Nigeria, Gabon, and Angola enjoyed strong surpluses in 2024, the report warns that falling energy revenues may reverse these gains in the coming years.

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Gabon is forecast to post the region’s highest surplus at 30.7 per cent of GDP in 2024, while Angola’s surplus is expected to fall sharply to 2 per cent by 2026. Among metal-rich economies, Zambia is benefiting from rising copper exports, while South Africa is facing a widening deficit driven by import demand.

For countries without major resource exports, deficits persist but are gradually narrowing. Kenya’s current account deficit is expected to stabilise at 4 per cent of GDP by 2026, aided by stronger exports and investment flows. In contrast, Mozambique’s deficit is projected to remain at 12.1 per cent, driven by import-intensive megaprojects, despite gains from coal and gas exports.

In Nigeria, the Central Bank noted that goods trade delivered a surplus of $13.17 billion in 2024, powered by a 48.3 per cent increase in gas exports and a 24.6 per cent rise in non-oil exports. On the other hand, petroleum imports fell 23.2 per cent and non-oil imports declined by 12.6 per cent, reflecting the impact of FX liberalisation, reduced import dependence, and growing local production.

The World Bank’s outlook signals an important opportunity for Nigeria to consolidate its external gains and attract investment. However, risks remain from global trade volatility and exchange rate pressures that could test the resilience of these gains in the medium term.