Turmoil in Rivers: Will Tinubu Reinstate Fubara by May 29?

…Suspended Governor seeks redemption amid political strife

Since the declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on March 18, 2025, the unfolding events have spotlighted not just a regional crisis but a deeper power struggle at the heart of Nigerian politics.

At the center of the storm is Governor Siminalayi Fubara—suspended, politically immobilized, and now maneuvering through a treacherous maze of alliances and betrayals. His suspension, along with that of his deputy and the entire legislative arm, was not merely a disciplinary action; it was a bold assertion of federal authority, signaling that power in Nigeria is often determined less by elections and more by strategic leverage.

What has emerged since then is a dramatic attempt by Fubara to reclaim relevance, not through confrontation, but through conciliation. His recent outreach to Nyesom Wike, the Federal Capital Territory Minister and his former political godfather turned adversary, reveals how survival in Nigerian politics often requires swallowing pride and recalibrating loyalties.

Fubara’s visit to Wike on April 18—facilitated by powerful Yoruba political figures like Governor Dapo Abiodun and former Governor Segun Osoba—was a calculated move. By engaging Wike outside the influence of Rivers’ entrenched political elders, Fubara signaled a pivot from local resistance to federal diplomacy. In essence, he acknowledged that resolving his crisis demands negotiating with the real centers of power—those who control not just votes, but political machinery.

Wike, emboldened by his position in Tinubu’s cabinet and fortified by years of political experience, holds more than symbolic power. He represents the networked reality of Nigerian politics, where influence trumps office and where loyalty can shift overnight depending on personal interest. His fallout with Fubara stems not from ideological differences but from the complex web of expectations and disappointments that followed the PDP’s 2023 presidential primaries.

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Yet, the real story in Rivers isn’t just about Fubara and Wike—it’s about the precarious balance between democratic representation and political control. Fubara was elected by the people of Rivers, but his fate now rests with figures outside the state. This situation underscores a broader dilemma in Nigeria: governors may hold the mandate, but it is party leaders, federal allies, and political financiers who often hold the reins.

As Nigeria approaches May 29—Democracy Day—expectations are rising that President Tinubu might use the occasion to make a statement on Fubara’s future. For many, reinstating the suspended governor would be a gesture of national healing, a reaffirmation of the democratic process, and a step toward restoring order in a politically volatile state.

However, if Fubara is reinstated, it will likely come with strings attached. There are already indications that any resolution will involve concessions to Wike’s camp—possibly through appointments and political alignments that could constrain Fubara’s independence. The concern now is whether governance in Rivers would be led by an empowered executive or a figurehead bound by backroom agreements.

This isn’t just a Rivers State story; it is a reflection of the fragile nature of democratic governance across Nigeria. Political power is fluid, and legitimacy is often negotiated rather than earned through electoral mandate alone. Fubara’s journey from suspended governor to potential comeback figure highlights the compromises that define leadership in today’s Nigeria.

For the people of Rivers, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Their aspirations for stable governance, economic development, and social peace hang in the balance. Whether Fubara can rise above the intrigue and lead effectively—or whether he becomes another casualty of Nigeria’s politics of control—remains to be seen.

Ultimately, what’s unfolding is not just a political crisis, but a litmus test for the nation’s commitment to democratic values. The decisions made in the coming weeks—by Tinubu, by Wike, and by Fubara himself—will shape not only the future of Rivers State but the integrity of Nigeria’s political system as a whole.