Senate anticipates delay in 2026 budget presentation, raises concern

Presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill by President Bola Tinubu to the National Assembly may be delayed as the nation’s economic managers struggle to account for the performance of the 2024 and 2025 budgets.

This concern emerged on Thursday when the Senate Committee on Finance met with top economic managers led by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun.

Edun was accompanied by the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Mr. Tanimu Yakubu, and the Accountant-General of the Federation, Mr. Shamsudeen Ogunjinmi. The Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, and the Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Zach Afedeji, were absent.

At the meeting, the Senate Finance Committee directed Edun and his team to furnish it with a documented performance report on the implementation of the 2024 budget and projections for the capital component of the 2025 budget.

The Chairman of the Committee, Senator Mohammed Sani Musa (Niger East), gave the directive after a closed-door session with the officials.

According to him, the committee resolved that the presentation of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for 2026–2029 can only proceed after the requested reports are submitted on October 23.

He said: “We have had the position at which the 2024 budget is, and what the position also of the 2025 budget [is]. And the expectations we are having for the ministry to, as a matter of urgency, bring the MTEF for 2026 to 2029. And the minister has briefed us, and we have collectively agreed that we are making progress, but we need to make more progress.
“We have heard from the Accountant General, we have heard from the Director of Budgets, where we are with the budgets. The payments that have so far been released, the warrants that have so far been signed. And also, regarding the 2025 authority to incur the expenditure for agencies to be able to release their capital projects.

“We have all heard that, and we have agreed that we are making progress. And we expect that, with what Mr. President has done just this week, sending a letter to the National Assembly, requesting for more approvals to loans, to be able to see that the 2025 budget is also taking adequate care of.

“We have all agreed that we will want documented evidence of the performance of 2024, and our expectations for the 2025 budget, before we start talking about the MTEF for 2026.

“And the Honourable Minister of Finance has agreed to oblige us to give us that progress report. And we have agreed to reconvene, because this meeting is just adjourned. We are going to reconvene on the 23rd of October.”

Earlier, in his opening remarks, Edun claimed high performance was being recorded in the implementation of the 2024 capital budget and that projections for 2025 were also positive. However, the DG of the Budget Office presented a different view.

Yakubu explained that implementation of both the 2024 and 2025 budgets had been turbulent because underlying assumptions were not realised.

He said: “We have indeed had a turbulent year — one in which most of the assumptions underpinning the 2024 and 2025 budgets turned out differently from projections.

“Oil revenue, assumed at $75 per barrel, fell short by between $10 and $15 due to global price fluctuations. Inflation also rose beyond projections, affecting borrowing costs and debt service performance, which significantly exceeded targets.

“Furthermore, the unforeseen fiscal implications of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2022 have compounded our challenges.

“Under the Act, 30% of gross oil revenue and 30% of oil and gas profits are retained for upstream operations, while the Federal Government also bears the NNPC’s operating costs. This has reduced the Federation Account allocation by nearly 70% of what used to accrue.

“In addition, crude oil output has been lower than projected in the MTEF approved by the National Assembly.”