REPORT: Global mortality rate drops by 67% since 1950

A new report by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) has revealed that the global mortality rate has fallen by 67 per cent since 1950, despite the effects of population growth and ageing.

The study, which examined data from 204 countries and territories as well as 660 subnational locations between 1990 and 2023, was published in The Lancet medical journal and released on Sunday.

According to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), the findings were presented at the ongoing World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany, which runs from Sunday to Tuesday.

The report shows that global life expectancy has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, increasing by more than 20 years since 1950 — reaching 76.3 years for females and 71.5 years for males.

However, the study highlighted stark regional inequalities, with life expectancy ranging from as high as 83 years in high-income regions to as low as 62 years in sub-Saharan Africa.

While overall health indicators improved globally, the report warned of a rising crisis of deaths among adolescents and young adults. It attributed this trend to suicide and substance abuse in North and Latin America, as well as infectious diseases and unintentional injuries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Between 2011 and 2023, the study found the highest increase in deaths among individuals aged 20 to 39 in high-income North America, mainly due to suicide, drug overdose, and excessive alcohol consumption. Deaths among those aged 5 to 19 also rose in Eastern Europe, North America, and the Caribbean within the same period.

Globally, the mean age at death rose from 46.4 years in 1990 to 62.9 years in 2023, though disparities remain significant.

“The highest mean age of death was recorded in the high-income super-region, with females reaching 80.5 years and males at 74.4 years. The lowest mean age of death was in sub-Saharan Africa, with females at 37.1 years and males at 34.8 years,” the report stated.

It also noted that “the all-cause probability of dying before age 70 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023,” but drug use disorders remained a leading cause. In sub-Saharan Africa, the probability of death increased for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with the mean age of death from NCDs lower than expected.

New data and methods, the report added, revealed that mortality among girls and women aged 15–29 in sub-Saharan Africa was “61 per cent greater than previously reported.”

In Nigeria, the report found that fewer people are dying now than in 1990, indicating improved health outcomes and longer life expectancy for both men and women. The country’s age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) dropped from 1,722.41 deaths per 100,000 people in 1990 to 1,085.19 in 2023. For males, the rate fell from 1,846.59 to 1,182.86, while for females, it declined from 1,599.20 to 1,003.34.

Despite this progress, the report warned that cuts to development assistance for health could threaten these gains. It also noted that more children aged 5 to 14 in sub-Saharan Africa died between 1950 and 2021 than previously estimated, mainly due to respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and unintentional injuries.

Deaths among young women aged 15 to 29 in the region were also found to be 61 per cent higher than earlier estimates, largely from maternal mortality, road injuries, and meningitis.

The report stressed that many low-resource countries need better access to prevention and treatment for non-communicable diseases, which now account for nearly two-thirds of global deaths and disabilities — led by ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes.

It further noted that half of the world’s disease burden is preventable and driven by 88 modifiable risks, with high blood pressure, air pollution, and smoking identified as the top three.

The report also found that the burden of mental health disorders continues to rise globally, with anxiety and depression increasing death and disability by 63 per cent and 26 per cent respectively.

The study was led by Dr Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, in collaboration with the GBD Collaborator Network.

Researchers analysed data for 375 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors by age and sex from 1990 to 2023. The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal founded in 1823 in the United Kingdom, focuses on global health, medicine, and public health policy.