President Goodluck Jonathan May Return

The South-West may fall into the hands of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). President Goodluck Jonathan should have the upper hand in Ondo, Ekiti, Oyo and Ogun states.

Osun is a core APC state, thus General Muhammadu Buhari’s enclave. However, unlike before, the All Progressives Congress (APC) will either share Lagos State with the PDP or lose it altogether. The APC is very solid in Lagos East Senatorial District. The PDP should be solid in Lagos West. But its Senatorial candidate, Aero, is alienating himself from the people due to the violence associated with his campaign.Lagos Central is a 50:50 zone between APC and PDP.

Of course, this projection for the presidential election is different from what will happen concerning senatorial and House of Reps elections, where local politics will play a strong factor. Candidates with the right orientation among the PDP folks should be able to ride on Jonathan’s wings to victory in the National Assembly elections. In the South-South, Rivers and Akwa Ibom should be interesting in a region where the PDP should have scored at least 90%. The APC should be able to claim Akwa Ibom and Rivers states. This remains true for Rivers despite the defection of its deputy governor to the PDP. But Edo, Delta, Bayelsa and Cross River are places Jonathan should deliver. The South-East is certainly a PDP enclave, thus Jonathan’s territory.

The Middle Belt may not deliver for Buhari. Except more work is done in Kwara, PDP may pick the state. As in most parts of the Middle Belt, the fear of a core Northerner becoming president is the beginning of wisdom. They don’t like it. Only in Ilorin, where the Sarakis hold sway they love Buhari. From Benue, Plateau to Kogi and a substantial part of Niger State, the menace of Fulani cattle rearers certainly has an ugly outcome for Buhari. A vote for Buhari would be seen as strengthening the militant Fulanis. Nassarawa and Bauchi are not sure for APC. But more work can turn the table, especially in Niger where old PDP hands are decamping to APC in large numbers.

Jonathan may have liberated captured portions of the North-East. But the feeling is likely to remain that had a Buhari been in power, thousands of people who perished in the conflict might still be alive. From Borno, Yobe to Adamawa, Jonathan should not expect much political “Thank Yous”. He is seen as being responsible for the deaths and destruction in the place. But the APC needs to be on its guard in the liberated areas. Being areas under conflict and the military under federal control, the PDP may want to use the security forces to determine election outcome.

The feeling in the North-West states of Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa and Kano are not different from those of the North- East. But the Christians and traditionalists of the North-West harbour a long term hatred for Buhari. The former Head of State did not speak out on time when non-Muslims were being slaughtered by pro-Buhari elements protesting against the 2011 presidential election. Scores of people were killed in Kaduna and Katsina states. Jonathan might gain there, especially Kaduna where the Christians are in certain majority.

Who’ll win overall? There is a lot of popular sentiments against Jonathan. But he is likely to win reelection with the country most likely going up in flames as a result within a few days. If this happens and Buhari plays a statesman unlike 2011, Nigeria may not descend into anarchy.

But if against all odds, Buhari wins, Jonathan’s supporters cannot plunge Nigeria into crisis. The least they can do to to try and sabotage oil export operations. And a leader like Buhari can contain that within a few weeks. A scorched earth operation as carried out by former President Olusegun Obasanjo along with appropriate carrots should be enough. And Buhari has capability for both.

Just my two cents!