OPEC output hike to hold through July as group fast-tracks supply adjustment
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, will maintain their planned output increase through July 2025, as part of efforts to recalibrate the oil market and penalise past overproduction.
OPEC+ has committed to boosting production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) across May, June and July—an accelerated timeline compared to its original tapering plan. The group’s total output reached 26.75 million bpd in May, marking a 150,000 bpd rise from April, according to a recent survey. Saudi Arabia led the surge, increasing production by 130,000 bpd.
Of the eight OPEC+ countries authorised to raise production, five core OPEC members—Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—were scheduled to lift supply by a combined 310,000 bpd. However, actual gains were tempered by compensation cuts for past overproduction, with the group only increasing by 180,000 bpd.
Iraq, under pressure to meet its compliance obligations, cut back output in May to offset previous overages. The UAE also produced below its target, influenced by relatively modest compensation obligations.
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Despite these measured hikes, analysts say real production levels remain difficult to pin down. Diverging data from OPEC, the International Energy Agency, and market trackers such as LSEG and Kpler indicate a range of estimates, particularly for countries like Iraq and the UAE.
While OPEC’s internal data and secondary sources suggest members are mostly adhering to quotas, the IEA has flagged potential oversupply, suggesting some producers may be exceeding their official limits.
The ongoing adjustments reflect OPEC+’s strategic balance between restoring output and maintaining market discipline. The group’s output path beyond July remains a focal point for traders and analysts watching for signals of future supply direction amid global demand uncertainty.
