Oil revenue falls 21% below projection in Q4 2024 — budget office

Nigeria’s oil earnings in the fourth quarter of 2024 fell 21 percent short of government projections, according to the latest report from the Budget Office of the Federation.

The report showed that the federal government earned ₦3.34 trillion in net oil revenue between October and December, lower than the projected ₦4.24 trillion for the period.

“The actual net oil revenue that accrued into the Federation Account in the fourth quarter of 2024 was ₦3,349.25 billion.

“This represents a decrease of ₦896.57 billion, or 21.12 percent, below the estimated quarterly budget,” the office said.

Oil revenue for the quarter also dropped 16 percent compared to the ₦3.99 trillion recorded in the previous quarter.

Despite the decline, earnings were up 65 percent from the ₦2.41 trillion posted in the same quarter of 2023.

The Budget Office attributed the weak performance to lower oil production and lifting, citing “low sector investment, crude theft, and high fiscal deductions, including those for the government’s petroleum subsidy policy.”

Gross oil revenue stood at ₦3.9 trillion, down 22 percent from the quarterly target and 15 percent lower than the figure recorded in Q3. Still, the office noted that the inflow was more than double the ₦1.89 trillion recorded in Q4 2023.

Royalties from oil and gas, concessional rentals, and pipeline fees all exceeded expectations. Royalties brought in ₦2.18 trillion, surpassing projections by over 36 percent.

But key revenue streams such as crude oil and gas sales, petroleum profit and gas taxes, and incidental oil revenues fell below estimates, with petroleum profit and gas taxes dropping nearly 58 percent.

For the full year, the government collected ₦15.07 trillion in gross oil revenue — ₦4.93 trillion less than the ₦19.99 trillion projected in the 2024 budget. Despite the shortfall, the figure represents an 80 percent increase over the ₦8.36 trillion collected in 2023.

“The performance underscores the persistent structural challenges facing Nigeria’s oil sector.

While revenue has improved compared to last year, issues such as underinvestment, theft, and production inefficiencies continue to weigh on performance,” the Budget Office said.