Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Hits N12.64trn in H1, Oil Exports Slide 11.3%
Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N12.64 trillion in the first half of 2025, even as crude oil receipts weakened by 11.3 per cent year-on-year to N24.92 trillion, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and analysis by Cowry Assets Management Limited.
Total merchandise trade climbed 12.88 per cent to N74.06 trillion from N65.61 trillion in the same period of 2024, with exports firmly ahead of imports. Exports totalled N43.35 trillion, while imports, weighed down by elevated foreign exchange costs, declined to N30.71 trillion. This lifted the trade surplus by 54.6 per cent from N8.17 trillion in H1 2024.
Despite higher average Bonny Light crude prices at $77.52 per barrel, oil receipts contracted, underscoring Nigeria’s vulnerability to production constraints. Non-oil exports such as cocoa and sesame seeds, however, benefitted from stronger global demand, reflecting the growing potential of agricultural commodities in easing reliance on hydrocarbons.
Cowry Assets Management, in its report titled Nigeria’s H1 2025 Trade Statistics, noted that Nigeria’s trade performance “continues to be shaped by a mix of global commodity swings and domestic FX policy.”
It added that sustained surpluses provide some buffer for external reserves and foreign exchange liquidity, but warned that the country’s dependence on crude oil and mineral exports exposes the economy to external shocks.
The research firm also highlighted that muted imports, a result of elevated FX costs and government reforms discouraging import dependence, could squeeze manufacturers in the medium term. However, recent signs of FX stability suggest that import activity may gradually rebound in subsequent quarters.
“The real test will be how policymakers and investors translate today’s surpluses into lasting diversification and a stronger manufacturing base,” Cowry Assets cautioned.
