Nigeria: Too big to be great
I recently heard the former President Goodluck Jonathan said, “We are great because of our size, human resources and diversity. If we fragmentise the country, we will be forgotten by the world”.
I have written this article in response to that opinion. It is high time we start facing the realities. Truth is that the Nigerian project is not working. Nigeria with 170 million populations divided by two competing religions, over 250 ethnicities with different languages and ideologies would hardly survive or succeed under a single political institution. Among the 183 countries in the world, Nigeria is the only one with two competing religions (Christianity and Islam) each striving to outwit the other.
Historically, the British colonisers have always partitioned nations according to their religious belief and ideologies, as was the case of India-Pakistan in 1948, Israel-Palestine in 1947 and Pakistan-Bangledash in 1971. It was only in Nigeria that two religions are joined together by Lord Lugard in 1914. The ideal thing should have been to separate the Southern and Northern protectorate. Lugard committed a political blunder that only time will tell the cost of his errors. Southern and Northern Sudan went their separate ways in 2011.
After years of studies and researches, political economists agreed that weak institutions rather than corruption was reason many African countries are poor and less developed. Nigeria needs strong political and economic institutions to achieve economic growth and greatness but its institutions are so weak as result of ethnic disunity arising from competing religions and ideologies.
We have shied away from at our own peril away from this truth. Millions of Nigerians have been killed because we never learnt from history and reality. The Nigerian project is not working. The self-acclaimed giant of Africa is actually a failure. Smaller countries like Ghana, Gambia, Senegal, Ethiopia and Ivory Coast have stronger institutions and economic stability than Nigeria.
Jonathan’s fears were that Nigeria would be forgotten in the world if divided into small components. Contrary to his opinion, each region can still be a major player on the African continent and the global economy at large. If Nigeria were to be divided into four regions, according to the geographical distribution, the smallest regions would still have a population of over 35 million people and each of these regions is endowed with the abundant natural and human resources. Over 60% of the G20 members: the largest economies in the world are less than 30 million in population. In the European Union, apart from Germany with 80 million population, France; 64 million, United Kingdom; 65million, Italy; 59 million and Spain; 46 million, all other European countries are between 5million to 12million in population.
Therefore, the greatness of an economy may not necessary be determined by the size of its population. Singapore with just 5.5million people has the 3rd largest per capital income in the world, second busiest seaport in the world and is the brain behind the economic success of the East Asian countries. Singapore ‘s GDP is presently almost the same with Nigerian GDP despite been an oil producing country.
Most Nigerians are so scared and nervous when they hear the word “division”. Some business leaders with businesses across Nigeria and religious leaders with mosques and churches all over Nigeria never wanted to discuss it. International organizations like the UN, AU and ECOWAS all agreed that division is the way forward to lasting peace and development in Nigeria. Probably, you are a western Nigerian with lots of business interest or properties in the north, dividing Nigeria into four segment does not imply that you lost all your investment, it does mean that you are now operating in a foreign country. Likewise, a Northerner with business interest in the West would be operating in a foreign country. The same thing applies to religious organisations with worship centres across Nigeria.
As was the case in the European Union, Nigeria can be separated into four regions and still relate with each other through bilateral agreement in trade, foreign policies and other important sectors. Partitioned of Nigeria into four regions would bring serious economic competition among the regions that could culminate into regional economic power with a prominent role in the global economy.
