PDP presidential primary: Who faces Buhari in 2019?

…12 contestants jostle for party’s ticket in Port Harcourt today
…Saraki, Tambuwal, Makarfi, Lamido, Dankwambo , Kwankwaso, Turaki, Mark, Bafarawa, Baba-Ahmed, Jang in focus
The dice for the 2019 presidential election is cast as the major opposition party in the country, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), will in the next 24 hours name a candidate who will face incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, the sole candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The PDP will elect its candidate among 12 aspirants jostling for the ticket in a presidential primary contest in Port Harcourt, the capital of Rivers State.

The 12 aspirants are former PDP chairman, Senator Ahmed Makarfi, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former governor of Kano State, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, former governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, former governor of Sokoto State, Attahiru Bafarawa, former governor of Plateau State, Senator Jonah Jang,

former Minister of Special Duties , Kabiru Tanimu Turaki (SAN), former Senate President, David Mark, incumbent Senate President, Bukola Saraki, Baze University proprietor, Dr. Datti Baba Ahmed, Gombe State Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo and Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal.

Notwithstanding the attempt by the National Assembly to alter the 2019 elections timetable through a purported election sequencing, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had stuck to Saturday, February 16, 2019 as the date for the presidential election.

Though the PDP on Thursday raised the alarm that the APC-led Presidency had plans to derail its Port Harcourt convention, the party insisted that the convention starts at about 7am today.

Today’s primary is seen by political pundits as a make or mar exercise for the party considering the number and calibre of aspirants fighting for the soul of PDP, especially the fear of managing post -convention crisis which may occur after the event.

Various organs of the party, especially the Board of Trustees (BoT) and the National Working Committee (NWC) had made spirited efforts to go into today’s primary with lesser number of aspirants.

Their concern was to reduce the number with the aim of working on other variables that will produce a strongest candidate capable of reducing the voting support base of President Buhari.

But it is unfortunate that the consensus arrangement did not work out as none of the aspirants was ready to swallow his pride after paying N12 million to obtain expression of interest and nomination forms.

Nonetheless, the party hierarchy had also tried to be above partisanship by reassuring all aspirants of a level play ground, promising them a free, fair and credible primary that will be acceptable to all.

The party went ahead to give each aspirant the opportunity of nominating two representatives into the convention election committee to ensure transparency and a thorough delegates accreditation process in which state party chairmen will lead their states delegates to the accreditation desks at the entrance to the Adokiye Amaesimaka Stadium, venue of the convention.

As part of internal crisis management mechanism, the party had entered into a bond with all the aspirants who had vowed to support whoever emerges victorious in Port Harcourt. All of them agreed to place the sole interest of the party which is to take over power above individual personal interests.

As expected, a lot of factors will determine the outcome of the primary but of great importance is the influence of the PDP governors.

Though it is obvious that not all the 14 governors can speak with one voice, any aspirant that has the support of at least half of the governors may have his chances brightened as this is the only organ of the party that has shown preference for aspirants.

If electronic voting and opinion polls conducted prior to today’s primary by various opinion moulders are anything to go by, the primary could have been conducted among six leading contenders namely former Vice President Atiku Abubakar,

Senate President Bukola Saraki, Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal, former Kano State governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Gombe State Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo and former Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido.

But the contest, to a certain extent, will also be decided by individual strength and weaknesses of the aspirants.

The 12 aspirants in focus:

Atiku Abubakar
Atiku Abubakar is a serial contender who is leaving nothing to chance in his fourth attempt at ruling Nigeria after leaving the power centre stage in 2003 when he fell out of favour from the then President Olusegun Obasanjo.

Should preparation be the only yardstick for the contest in this game, Atiku is far ahead of others as he has a formidable, well oiled and intimidating political structure with tentacles across nooks and crannies of the country.

To cap it all, he has the largest financial war chest to prosecute the presidential project, the kind of fund needed to match a Buhari with the state fund at his disposal.

His depth of consultations ahead of today’s contest is unrivalled. This is seen in the arrays of 60 politicians carefully selected across the 36 states of the federation to spearhead and coordinate his campaign. He is indeed, a master strategist.

Atiku has on several occasions put no one in doubt that he is fully aware of what he wants to do with power. He has a well articulated agenda.

The blueprint of his government which is premised on restructuring of the country is also focused on entrepreneurial education system, creation of employment opportunities and wealth for women and the youth and development of basic infrastructure.

His limitation might be the non- comfortability of the PDP governors forum with his choice as they will see him as a president that could not be easily controlled. He, nevertheless, has a few governors that are on his side.

Also, his influence among power brokers in the country referred to as owners of the Nigerian project is questionable. His former boss, Obasanjo, former military president, Ibrahim Babangida, former Defence minister, Theophilus Danjuma, all retired army generals, are not favourably disposed to an Atiku presidency and this may slightly affect his chances.

Bukola Saraki
Though a late entrant into the race, Saraki has moved in a faster political speed across the country, selling his candidacy.

Apart from coming from a relatively known family of the Abubakar Olusola Saraki political dynasty of Ilorin, this former two-term governor of Kwara State started manifesting his political deftness and dexterity as chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum in the ways he negotiated with the Federal Government over national issues of national concern.

His emergence as the President of the 8th Senate and his ability thereafter to navigate the political waters of the parliament across party level really attest to his political maturity,

while the face-off between the Buhari Presidency and the National Assembly under his chairmanship really put Saraki in the front burner as a maverick politician who understands the power game of politics.

His relative youthfulness could work for him as he is seen by the youth as a bridge builder between the older and younger generation.

He also could be said to have the support of political associates of his late father and that of his many parliamentary friends and allies.

Though Saraki is from the North Central, coming from Ilorin, a dominantly Yoruba speaking town, might be a big minus in a race highly favourable to a core Northerner

His indifference to the Buhari administration largely perceived as anti-northern affront by an average person from the North irrespective of party affiliations might count against him.

Above all, till today, Saraki in some quarters is believed to be fronting for the emergence of one of the aspirants Tambuwal and it may not come as a surprise if he steps down before the casting of ballots in Port Harcourt.

Aminu Tambuwal

The former Speaker, House of Representatives and incumbent Sokoto State Governor, is one of the late entrants into the PDP presidential race, having recently defected from the All Progressives Congress (APC), a platform on which he won the state governorship seat.

He could be said to be basking on his experience as a parliamentarian of above a decade knowledge and the status of being a state governor, which is a greater factor working for him among the PDP Governors Forum with the Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, selling his candidacy to his colleagues and other organs of the he party.

Tambuwal also could be said to be counting on his North-West geopolitical base as a source of electoral strength.

Though not confirmed, a source had it that a few of the aspirants including Saraki are fronting for Tambuwal candidacy as the popular candidate of PDP governors spearheaded by Wike who fought the party tooth and nail to secure Port Harcourt, his domain, as the preferred venue.

Left to the support he enjoys from the Governors’ Forum, Tambuwal is seen as not too eloquent personality for the job and that he weaves less charisma.

He is a leading light in the race with majority of delegates from the PDP controlled states behind him.

The candidature of the Sokoto State governor is also believed to enjoy the support of the Caliphate, a very strong ethno-religious body that sells him to the larger North- West delegates.

Rabiu Kwankwaso
A two term governor of Kano State, former minister of Defence, Kwankwaso, a serving senator, is one of the favourites for the PDP presidency.

A politician of note with a cult-like support base in the Kwankwasiya Movement, about the largest political movement presently in Nigeria, Kwankwaso banks largely on his popularity among the down trodden in the North, He, no doubt, is the politician with the largest support base in the North, a factor that can spring surprise at the convention.

The Kano senator is highly rated in terms of public service and performance in office as a governor. His track records as a state executive in the areas of education, peaceful co-existence of various ethno-religious groups, vocational and human capital developments remains unequal in the state.

Contrary to a belief that he is fanatical religious, Kwankwaso could be remembered to have fallen out of favour with his people over his stance on the Sharia Islamic law policy, to which he lost his re-election bid as a governor in 2003.

He has proved himself to be a detribalised Nigerian by supporting the late MKO Abiola presidential bid against Kano-born Bashir Tofa in the 1993 presidential election as well as supporting former President Olusegun Obassnjo against the candidature of the late Abubakar Rimi in 1999.

Though in favour with the likes of Obasanjo, Kwankwaso, like Atiku, is seen as largely uncontrollable by certain power brokers who consider him as a meaner politician than Buhari.

Sule Lamido
This is also one politician that enjoys home support not only in Jigawa State where he was a two-term governor but other states in the North. Lamido is a party man to the core. He never deserted PDP during its dark days as the opposition arrowhead.

His track records of service could attest to his desirability as PDP presidential candidate. He was adjudged to have left indelible marks in the area of infrastructural development in the eight years of his administration in Kano State.

Though a former governor, he is not in the favour books of the PDP governors and this may work slightly against him. He as well does not command good standing in the southern part of the country.

Also, he is seen as a politician with limited financial resources to prosecute the presidential agenda.

Lamido may not be considered by the party because of corruption case wound around him by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

Ibrahim Dankwambo
Young, suave and urban politician, the governor of Gombe State is one aspirant being considered in many quarters as a potential president.

A great performer, Dankwambo , an accountant by profession and former Accountant General of the Federation and two term governor, has an impressive credential added to his youthfulness.

His weakness, however, lies in his coming from the North-East with less voting strength.

He is also considered as having limited financial muscle to prosecute the agenda.

Attahiru Bafarawa
The former governor of Sokoto State is one of the cerebrally balanced aspirants qualified for the plum job.

Though he has kept a low profile since he left office as governor, his interest in the race came as no surprise to many because of his amiable track record in governance.

Bafarawa, however, is classified as one of the politicians of yester – years who can hardly fit into the present high tech politics coupled with the fact that he has lost touch with old allies and that he is financially not buoyant enough to go through the financial rigour of the contest.

Probably conceding defeat even before today’s primary, he was less visible in the political field in terms of consultation and he is not enjoying significant support from influential groups of the party.

It would not be surprising if he steps down before voting later in the day.

Datti Baba Ahmed
The academician and proprietor of the Baze University, Abuja is not a known figure politically, having served in the parliament as member, House of Representatives and a senator.

Upwardly mobile personality, his campaign was largely done in the media rather than on the field.

His seeming political obscurity before his foray into the presidential race is not helping him as many people think he was in the race just to make political statement but never seriously prepared for the race.

He also may likely step down before voting today.

David Mark
Former military governor, administrator, communications minister and former Senate president, Mark, a late entrant into the race, has serious presence in the race.

His ability to administer men and resources as a Senate president speaks volume. He had a firm grip of the upper chamber of the legislature for the period he held sway.

He could be said to be banking on the military confraternity of Obasanjo, Danjuma and others but he may not be enjoying their full support for the 2019 race.

Also, Mark’s affinity with the North Central geopolitical zone may not work in his favour.

Jonah Jang
The senator representing Plateau North senatorial district is less visible in the race. He has not been seen moving round soliciting for delegates support.

He could not be said to enjoy the support of the military fraternity despite being a former military governor, neither could any serious politician be seen identified with his mission.

Jang is considered as too old, frail and financially weak for the contest. He was believed to be fronting for another aspirant and may likely step down today.

Ahmed Makarfi
Former governor of Kaduna State and former caretaker chairman of the party, Makarfi is a loyal party man who stood by the party through thick and thin.

If service and loyalty were to be a yardstick, Makarfi should be leading the pack. He is amiably loved across party lines.

He also has an impressive record of public service as a governor and a senator.

This is one aspirant who is highly unpredictable. He may dump his ambition at the eleventh hour and declare support for one of the leading contenders.

Kabiru Tanimu Turaki
A Senior Advocate of Nigeria, a successful lawyer and gentle Nigerian whose foray into the race was surprise because of his little presence in the political space apart, he being a former Minister of Special Duties.

Turaki is sound and intelligent. His campaign train moved round some parts of the country but he was accorded reception mostly in northern states.

He is seen to be more serious in the race and stand the chance of polling unexpected votes even as a dark horse in the race.