Nigeria’s Oil Output Rises but Still Misses OPEC Quota-Report

Nigeria’s crude oil production recorded a slight improvement in November, rising to 1.436 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.401 million bpd in October, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report released on Thursday.

Despite the uptick, the country again missed its allocated production quota, marking the fourth consecutive month of shortfall. Nigeria last met its target in July 2025, underscoring ongoing challenges in stabilising output.

OPEC data shows Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter of 2025, lower than the 1.481 million bpd recorded in the second quarter and 1.468 million bpd in the first.

Advertisement

The trend points to continued difficulties in sustaining a meaningful recovery despite new investments and government interventions in the upstream sector.

Globally, OPEC and its allies are projected to produce an average of 43 million bpd next year to maintain market balance, in line with current levels. This expectation contrasts with industry forecasts of a possible supply surplus in 2026.

Key OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia, have agreed to pause further production increases in the first quarter of next year due to fragile market conditions following earlier expansions.

Advertisement

Nigeria’s persistent failure to meet its quota remains a concern for foreign exchange earnings, as crude oil continues to dominate national revenue. However, the modest rise in November points to a cautious upward trend that could support government finances if maintained.

With refinery rehabilitation underway, the expected ramp-up of private refineries such as Dangote’s and increased upstream investments, stronger production in 2026 remains possible if security and infrastructure issues are addressed.

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reported a decline in national petrol consumption to 52.9 million litres per day in November, down from 56.74 million litres per day in October, indicating a shift in domestic fuel demand patterns.