Nigeria’s Oil Exports Slump From $94bn Peak to $45bn Average
Nigeria’s crude oil and gas export earnings have slumped sharply over the past decade, dropping from an annual average of $81 billion between 2008 and 2014 to just $45 billion between 2015 and 2024. The decline represents a 44 per cent fall and signals a structural reset in the country’s oil fortunes.
At its peak in 2011, Nigeria earned $93.89 billion from hydrocarbon exports. But by 2016, revenues had collapsed to $32.03 billion, and in 2020 they fell further to $31.40 billion, marking a 66 per cent plunge from the peak.
Production mirrored the downturn, sliding from 2.19 million barrels per day in 2013 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2022, before stabilising at around 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024.
Global oil price shocks, including the 2014–2016 crash and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the slump. Yet domestic challenges proved equally damaging, with Niger Delta unrest, pipeline vandalism, and large-scale crude theft eroding output. International oil companies divested from onshore assets, upstream investment slowed, and infrastructure weaknesses deepened, leaving Nigeria’s oil export system stuck at a lower baseline.
The economic fallout has been severe. Oil revenue remains central to Nigeria’s fiscal framework, but weaker inflows have widened deficits, strained foreign exchange reserves, and forced increased borrowing. The country’s ability to build fiscal buffers during high-price cycles has diminished, exposing public finances to greater vulnerability.
Recent figures suggest a gradual shift in the export mix. Between January and September 2025, crude oil exports totalled $24.7 billion, gas exports reached $8.27 billion, and petroleum product exports stood at $4.15 billion, bringing total hydrocarbon exports to $37.1 billion. Gas and refined products are now contributing more meaningfully than in earlier years, though crude oil remains dominant.
Nigeria’s oil story is no longer cyclical but structural. With production weakness resetting the country’s export baseline and the global energy transition accelerating, the window to maximise hydrocarbon value is narrowing. Without decisive investment, security, and infrastructure reforms, Nigeria risks remaining stuck in a fragile oil-dependent reality, far removed from its $90 billion export heyday.
