Nigeria’s GDP grows by 1.40% in Q3 2017

Nigeria’s nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew in third quarter (Q3) 2017 by 1.40% (year-on-year) in real terms, the second consecutive positive growth since the emergence of the economy from recession in Q2 2017.

This growth is 3.74% points higher than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016 ( –2.34%) and higher by 0.68% points from the rate recorded in the preceding quarter, which was revised to 0.72% from 0.55% (Q2 was revised following revisions by NNPC to oil output and hence led to revisions to Oil GDP) .

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Gross Domestic Product Report Q3 2017 released on Monday show that the quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 8.97%, while the year to date Real GDP growth stands at 0.43%.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N29,451,303.99million in nominal terms higher when compared to N26,537,651.01 million in Q3 2016, resulting in a Nominal GDP growth of 10.98%.

This growth is higher relative to growth recorded in Q3 2016 of 9.15%. The broad classification into the oil and non-oil sectors will give a clearer depiction of the Nigerian economy.

The non-oil sector grew by –0.76% in real terms during the reference quarter. This is lower by -0.79% point compared to the rate recorded same quarter, 2016 and -1.20% point lower than in the second quarter of
2017.

In the period under review, Oil production is estimated to have averaged 2.03million barrels per day (mbpd),

0.15million barrels higher than the revised daily average production recorded in the second quarter of 2017 (revised from 1.84mbpd to 1.87mbpd).

Oil production during the quarter was higher by 0.42million barrels per day relative to the corresponding quarter in 2016, which recorded an output of 1.61mbpd.

Real growth of the oil sector was 25.89% (year-on-year) in Q3 2017. This represents an increase of 48.92% relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016.

Growth also increased by 22.36% when compared to Q2 2017 which was revised from 1.64% to 3.53%. Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector grew by 21.10% in Q3 2017

As a share of the economy, the Oil sector contributed 10.04% of total real GDP in Q3 2017, up from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2016 and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.09% and 9.04% to GDP respectively.

This sector was driven this quarter mainly by Agriculture (Crop), Other services and Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 89.96% to the nation’s GDP, lower than the share recorded in the third quarter of 2016 (91.91%) and in the second quarter of 2017 (90.96%).

The third quarter of 2017 saw the Mining & Quarrying sector (which consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities) record a nominal growth of 101.36% (year on year), taking into account revised Q2 2017 data.

Crude petroleum and natural gas recorded a growth rate of 102.79%, Metal ore recorded 22.75% and Quarrying and other metals recorded 27.94% respectively maintaining strong year on year growth when compared with the corresponding quarter growth rates of 2016 at 4.09%, 17.11% and 16.46% respectively.

The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 11.17% to overall GDP in the third quarter of 2017, higher than the contributions recorded in 2016 third quarter and the previous quarter at 6.15%, and 9.08% respectively.

In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by 25.44% (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2017.

Compared to the third quarter of 2016 and second quarter 2017, it was higher by 48.09% points and 21.93% points respectively. Quarter on quarter, growth rate recorded was 20.84%.

The contribution of Mining and Quarrying sector to Real GDP in the third quarter of 2017 stood at 10.19%, higher than the 8.24% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016, and also higher than the second quarter result of 2017 which was revised to 9.19%.

The Agriculture: Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing.

The agriculture sector grew by 12.50% year-on-year in nominal terms, showing an increase over the same quarter of 2016 by 5.13% points but a slight decline by -0.03% points when compared to the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 12.53%.

Crop Production remains the major driver of the sector as it accounts for 91.97% of overall nominal growth of the sector. In the third quarter of 2017, Agriculture contributed 24.44% to nominal GDP.

This figure is higher than the rates recorded for the third quarter of 2016 and second quarter of 2017 at 24.11% and 19.28% respectively.

The agricultural sector in the third quarter of 2017 grew by 3.06% (year-on-year) in real terms, a decrease of -1.47% points from the corresponding period of 2016 and an increase of 0.05% points over the preceding quarter.

The sector in the current quarter contributed 29.15% to overall GDP in real terms higher than the contributions in the third quarter of 2016 and second quarter of 2017 which stood at 28.68% and 22.93% respectively.

The Manufacturing sector is comprised of thirteen activities: Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products;

Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic, Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing.

Nominal GDP growth of Manufacturing in the third Quarter of 2017 was 10.32% (year-on-year), 13.25% points higher than growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2016 (-2.93%), but –5.65% points lower than the preceding quarter growth of 15.97%. Quarter on Quarter growth of the sector was 3.21%.

The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in the current quarter ws 8.55% , lower than figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2016 at 8.60% and for second quarter of 2017 at 9.02%.

Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the current quarter of 2017 was –2.85% (year on year), higher than the same quarter of 2016 by 1.53% points and -3.49% points lower than rate recorded in the

preceding quarter. Growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stands at 2.59%. Real contribution to GDP in 2017 third quarter is 8.81%.

Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report Q3 2017
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), has been conducting Establishment Surveys to provide data for the estimation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the country.

In 2008, NBS started to improve the GDP series by conducting Quarterly Establishment Surveys (QES) for the four quarters of each year to complement the annual surveys which normally take place in the first and second quarters of the succeeding year.

In 2016, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) conducted the Quarterly Establishment Surveys for the first three quarters of 2016 (Q1-Q3/ 2016), while the fourth quarter survey for 2016, the first, second and third quarters of 2017 was conducted in 2017.

These surveys produced the data that was used for the compilation of the quarterly GDP for the four quarters of 2016(Q1 – Q4, 2016) and the three quarters of

In subsequent sections of this report, emphasis will be given to the composition of GDP in the Third quarter of 2017 and the corresponding quarter in 2016.

Mathew Dadiya, Abuja