Nigeria on track for 2.5m barrels daily by 2026 – NUPRC

…sets 2030 deadline to end gas flaring, pushes decarbonisation drive

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has assured that Nigeria is firmly on course to raise crude oil output to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026, even as it unveiled a roadmap to eliminate routine gas flaring by 2030.

Commission Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, gave the assurance on Thursday in Abuja, at the opening of the PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit (PEALS) 2025, with the theme “Building a Resilient Oil and Gas Sector in Nigeria: Advancing HSE, ESG, Investment, and Incremental Production.”

Komolafe said current collaborative efforts between regulators, operators and government have already lifted production from 1.46 million bpd in October 2024 to 1.8 million bpd today, noting that “with this momentum, we are firmly on track to reach our 2.5 million barrels per day target by 2026.”

He explained that a major boost is expected from Nigeria’s deepwater resources, where stakeholders are working to unlock over 810,000 barrels per day in potential peak output from approved offshore development plans.

“At the heart of this effort is the cluster and nodal development strategy, designed to maximise shared infrastructure, capture economies of scale, and enable coordinated tiebacks,” he said.

The NUPRC boss stressed that the strategy mirrors global success stories from the North Sea, significantly reducing project costs and de-risking investments.

“It also positions Nigeria’s deepwater as a competitive, investor-friendly frontier capable of delivering substantial incremental barrels within the next few years,” Komolafe noted.

On sustainability, he said the Commission is driving a Decarbonisation Framework and a gas-centric transition programme, targeting a 60% reduction in methane emissions by 2031 while creating thousands of green jobs.

“Our Upstream Decarbonisation Framework and gas-centric transition strategy aim to eliminate routine flaring by 2030 and monetise our vast gas resources,” he declared.

Komolafe added that initiatives such as the Decade of Gas, the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), and the Presidential CNG Initiative were already positioning Nigeria as Africa’s gas powerhouse.

Turning to the broader context, he warned that global energy transition is gathering pace, with low-carbon investment surpassing fossil fuels for the first time in 2023 and hitting $2.1 trillion in 2024.

“The nations that will lead this transition are those that strike the right balance between sustaining current energy security and preparing for the low-carbon economy of tomorrow,” he cautioned.

He said Nigeria, with 37.28 billion barrels of crude oil and 210.54 trillion cubic feet of gas, must go beyond being resource-rich to being “resource-responsible,” harnessing hydrocarbons with world-class efficiency while preparing for cleaner alternatives.

Acknowledging the human capital dimension, Komolafe praised PENGASSAN members as critical to the future of the industry.

“You are the skilled engineers, geoscientists, HSE professionals, project managers, and technicians who turn investment into output, and output into national prosperity,” he said.

With nearly 70% of Nigerians under 30, he said the country has a demographic advantage to train and export world-class energy professionals.

“If we strategically invest in STEM education, technical training, and digital upskilling, our youth can fill the projected 20 million new energy jobs the IEA expects to emerge globally by 2030,” Komolafe stated.

He closed by reaffirming the Commission’s partnership with labour, investors and operators, saying: “Resilience is not built by chance, but by choice. Today, we must choose to invest in our people, drive innovation, safeguard the environment, and forge partnerships that will endure beyond market cycles and political terms.”