Nigeria Bans Coal Exports as Global Demand Set to Decline
By SAMUEL MOBOLAJI
Nigeria has placed a ban on the export of coal as global demand is projected to weaken from 2026, reflecting mounting competition from renewable energy, natural gas and nuclear power, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The policy move comes as the IEA’s Coal 2025 market report forecasts a gradual decline in global coal consumption through the end of the decade, driven largely by structural shifts in the power sector.
While coal demand is expected to rise marginally by 0.5 per cent in 2025 to a record 8.85 billion tonnes, the report projects that by 2030, consumption will fall back to 2023 levels as coal-fired power generation declines from 2026 onward.
Power generation currently accounts for about two-thirds of global coal use, but expanding renewable capacity, steady nuclear growth and a significant wave of liquefied natural gas supply are steadily eroding coal’s share. Industrial coal demand is expected to remain more resilient, providing some support to overall consumption.
Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s Minister of Environment, Alhaji Balarabe Abbas-Lawal, confirmed that the Federal Government has prohibited the export of coal, alongside wood, charcoal and allied products.
He said the directive is contained in the Presidential Executive Order on Prohibition of Exportation of Wood and Allied Products, 2025, signed by President Bola Tinubu, and takes immediate effect nationwide.
The IEA report, released on December 17, 2025, notes diverging consumption trends across major markets. In India, an unusually early and intense monsoon led to a rare annual decline in coal use, only the third such drop in five decades.
In the United States, higher natural gas prices and policies that slowed coal plant retirements pushed consumption higher, interrupting a 15-year downward trend. Coal demand in the European Union declined only modestly after two years of sharp contraction, while China’s consumption remained broadly flat compared with 2024.
Southeast Asia is forecast to be the fastest-growing coal market, with demand projected to rise by more than 4 per cent annually to 2030. However, the report cautions that uncertainties remain, particularly around electricity demand growth, renewable energy integration and policy direction in both advanced and developing economies.
China, which has played a critical role in supporting global coal trade in recent years, reduced imports in 2025 due to oversupply and weaker domestic demand. This trend is expected to persist to 2030, contributing to a broader contraction in global coal trade.
The report adds that metallurgical coal has stronger prospects, supported by India’s growing steel industry and continued reliance on imports.
Overall, the IEA projects declining coal output in most major producing countries through 2030, including China and Indonesia, as demand softens and trade weakens. India is expected to be an exception, with production rising as the government seeks to reduce import dependence.
Nigeria’s decision to halt coal exports aligns with the global transition away from coal and reflects a policy shift towards environmental protection and domestic resource conservation, even as the international coal market faces a more uncertain and constrained outlook beyond 2026.
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