Kwara 2027: Fairness and Reward for Loyalty; The Growing Demand for Power Shift to Kwara North

By Guest Writer

29 November 2025

Politics

By Kenneth Udeh

As political conversations gather steam ahead of the 2027 general elections, one debate that has steadily dominated discourse in Kwara State is that of power rotation, particularly the rising demand for the governorship to shift to the northern senatorial district.

From community halls in Baruten and Edu to strategic meetings in Kaiama, Moro, and Patigi, stakeholders across Kwara North are calling on all political parties, especially the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

While the call is not new, it is gaining unprecedented momentum buoyed by statistical evidence of electoral loyalty, historical imbalance in power distribution, and comparative lessons from neighbouring states where zoning has served as a stabilizing political arrangement.

The Genesis of the Zoning Debate

Kwara State, carved out of the old Northern Region in 1967, is a microcosm of Nigeria’s ethno-political complexity.

It is divided into three senatorial districts: Kwara Central (dominated by the Ilorin Emirate), Kwara South (home to the Igbomina, Ekiti, and Ibolo blocs), and Kwara North (consisting of the Nupe, Baruba, Bokobaru and Yoruba groups).

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, political leadership in Kwara has remained largely concentrated in the Central zone, which has produced the state’s governors for the better part of the Fourth Republic from Mohammed Lawal (1999–2003) and Bukola Saraki (2003–2011) to AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (2019–2027 ).

Kwara South had its turn between 2011 and 2019 under Abdulfatah Ahmed, but Kwara North, despite being one of the largest in landmass and the most agriculturally endowed, has remained on the sidelines of executive power since the short-lived administration of Governor Sha’aba Lafiagi (1992–1993).

This long-standing exclusion has fueled renewed agitation that, for the sake of fairness, and unity, the next governor should emerge from the North.

Voting Patterns: Kwara North’s Loyalty from 2015 to 2023

Beyond the moral argument, proponents of zoning cite consistent APC dominance in Kwara North as a strong justification for political reward.

Indeed, since 2015, the North has been the only senatorial district that has never lost to the PDP or any opposition party in presidential or gubernatorial contests.

2015 Gubernatorial Election (APC’s Abdulfatah Ahmed vs PDP’s Simon Ajibola)

Local Government APC PDP

Baruten APC 18,734 PDP 9,374

Edu APC 22,963 PDP 9,229

Kaiama APC 14,850 PDP 2,935

Patigi APC 16,335 PDP 3,033

Moro APC 21,068 PDP 5,447

Total (Kwara North): APC 93,950 – PDP 30,018

Final Result (Kwara North) APC: 75.8% PDP: 24.2%

2019 Gubernatorial Election (APC’s AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq vs PDP’s Razak Atunwa)

Local Government APC PDP

Baruten APC 26,865 PDP 7,090

Edu APC 26,805 PDP 6,174

Kaiama APC 14,829 PDP 3,386

Moro APC 18,985 PDP 5,490

Patigi APC 18,109 PDP 2,578

Total (Kwara North): APC 105,593 – PDP 24,718

Final Result (Kwara North) APC: 81.0%, PDP: 19.0%

2023 Gubernatorial Election (APC’s AbdulRazaq vs PDP’s Shuaibu Yaman)

Local Government APC PDP

Baruten APC 28,060 PDP 7,987

Edu APC 22,458 PDP 17,378

Kaiama APC 14,431 PDP 6,297

Moro APC 15,161 PDP 6,823

Patigi APC 13,813 PDP 6,544

Total (Kwara North): APC 93,923 – PDP 45,029

Final Result (Kwara North) APC: 67.6%, PDP: 32.4%

It is noteworthy that despite the PDP fielding a candidate from Kwara North in 2023, the people still reaffirmed their loyalty to the APC by voting overwhelmingly for its candidate from Kwara Central.

Presidential Elections: A Consistent Pattern

From the Muhammadu Buhari wave in 2015 to the Tinubu resurgence in 2023, Kwara North has consistently voted the APC in overwhelming numbers.

In 2019, for example, the North produced some of the highest vote margins for Buhari across the North-Central region, rivaling even Niger State’s strongholds.

Year Presidential Candidates APC Votes PDP Votes

2015 (Buhari vs Jonathan); APC Votes 95,208 PDP Votes 35,833

2019 (Buhari vs Atiku) APC Votes 95,966 PDP Votes 30,244

2023 (Tinubu vs Atiku)APC Votes 72,145 PDP Votes 42,347

Across the three election cycles, Kwara North remained a fortress of loyalty, delivering double-digit victory margins in all its five LGAs even during periods of national discontent or local tension.

For the records, no other senatorial district in Kwara can boast of such unbroken voting consistency across three consecutive presidential elections.

Even when opposition parties gained temporary ground in Ilorin or Omu-Aran, the five Kwara North LGAs stood firm behind the APC.

Summarily, the senatorial Kwara North, with a total of 563,065 votes displayed an unbridled loyalty to the ruling party across all the gubernatorial and presidential elections.

The Fairness Argument and the Weight of History

The demand for zoning is not merely political; it is rooted in a deep sense of historical exclusion.

Since 1999, the Central zone will, by 2027, have held the governorship for a cumulative 20 years, while the South has held it for 8 years, leaving the North with barely one year under Lafiagi’s truncated military-era tenure.

Political scientist and Ilorin-based analyst captures the sentiment succinctly:

“Equity is not about sentiment; it’s about balance. Power rotation sustains inclusion. Kwara North has been loyal, yet unrewarded and that’s a moral question for the ruling party.”

Stakeholders argue that allowing the North to produce the next governor will not only bridge decades of imbalance but also cement AbdulRazaq’s legacy as a leader who believes in justice and statewide harmony.

Comparative Lessons from Other States

Kwara is not alone in grappling with zoning debates. Other North-Central states have, over time, embraced rotational politics as a mechanism to preserve peace and fairness.

Niger State

Since 1999, Niger State has rotated its governorship between its three senatorial zones:

2007–2015 (Niger North): Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu (8 years)

2015–2023 (Niger East): Abubakar Sani Bello (8 years)

2023–present (Niger North): Umar Bago

Political watchers note that Niger’s consistency in rotation has prevented inter-zonal rancour and ensured each district’s inclusion in governance.

Due to this it led to political harmony in Niger state.

This balance, despite periodic political frictions, has helped maintain relative cohesion in the state.

The APC leadership there emphasized that equitable rotation enhances stability and loyalty.

Analysts therefore argue that Kwara risks future discontent if zoning continues to be ignored, especially when its neighbours have embraced rotation as a sustainable political tool.

The Political Calculus Ahead of 2027

For the APC, 2027 presents both a challenge and an opportunity.

The challenge lies in managing internal ambitions within the party particularly from Kwara Central politicians who may feel entitled to continue their dominance.

The opportunity, however, lies in leveraging the North’s loyalty and demographics to consolidate electoral gains and forestall internal rebellion.

A political observer from Moro put it plainly:

“It is not about sympathy, but strategy. The North has the spread and unity to deliver overwhelming votes if given the ticket. But continued marginalization could breed silent protest or voter apathy.”

Indeed, data from past elections suggests that when the North turns out in full strength, it contributes nearly one-third of total valid votes in Kwara State, a figure large enough to determine victory margins in tight races.

AbdulRazaq’s Role and Tinubu’s Moral Compass

Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, who chairs the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), occupies a pivotal role in shaping APC’s succession politics in Kwara.

While he has not made any public statement endorsing zoning, party insiders believe his eventual stance could be decisive.

Observers also point to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s national precedent as symbolic. Tinubu’s emergence as President in 2023 followed the APC’s zoning principle that rotated power from North to South after eight years of Buhari’s presidency.

To many, it would be morally consistent for the same principle to be respected at subnational levels.

“If equity worked for Tinubu at the federal level, it should not be alien in Kwara,” notes political columnist Abdullahi Ibrahim. “Fairness reinforces unity, that’s what zoning achieves.”

Socioeconomic Stakes for the North

Beyond politics, the agitation carries developmental undertones.

Despite its vast land and agricultural potential, Kwara North remains the least developed zone in terms of road infrastructure, healthcare access, and industrial investment.

Stakeholders believe that a governor from the region would naturally prioritize policies that unlock the area’s comparative advantages in agriculture and riverine commerce, while not ignoring the needs of other senatorial districts.

The Opposition Factor

While the PDP and other opposition parties remain fragmented in Kwara, analysts believe that how APC manages zoning could determine the state’s overall political climate in 2027.

If the ruling party overlooked the rotation demand, opposition forces could exploit the perceived injustice to rally support from disenchanted northern voters.

Political history supports this concern. In 2019, the “O to ge” movement, a grassroots rebellion against domination by the Saraki political dynasty was fueled largely by similar sentiments of exclusion and imbalance.

A recurrence of that psychology, this time within the APC, could prove costly.

As the Nation edges closer to the 2027 General elections ,the question confronting the APC in Kwara is not merely who succeeds Governor AbdulRazaq, but where that successor should come from.

The evidence of Kwara North’s consistent loyalty is clear; the argument for equity is compelling.

In the end, the decision will test not only the party’s political maturity but also its commitment to justice and inclusion principles that define sustainable governance.

“Equity sustains unity; loyalty deserves recognition,” says a party elder in Kwara North.

“When power circulates, the state prospers. That is the lesson history keeps teaching.”

Udeh writes from Abuja can be reached via @gwogwounited@gmail.com