ERGP: An approach to raise economic indices of Nigerians?

With the recent launch of the Nigerian Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), will citizens begin to record improvement in their economic indices within the target period, or will it be trailed by another policy that would further weaken earnings?

These and many other questions have greeted the three year, economic recovery and plan (2017-2020) launched by President Muhammadu Buhari on Wednesday 5th April 2017, driven by the Ministry of Budget & National Planning.

The concern rose out of various surveys and reports which indicated that Nigerians are dissatisfied with their economic situation.

A recent poll survey released by NO1 poll covering the first quarter 2017, showed that irrespective of economic index recording slight increase of 1.3 points in first quarter 2017 to 38.9 points.

The low figure depicts a complete dissatisfaction in Nigerians, of their economic situation. The Economic index has remained the lowest ranked index among other six personal wellbeing indices (PWBI) since 2016, the report explained.

The report which however revealed that Nigeria’s economy is gradually on recovery path, showed that personal wellbeing index grew marginally by 0.9 per cent in first quarter of the year.

Another report by the National Bureau of Statistics, (NBS), in its unemployment report for the fourth quarter (Q4) 2016 gave a breakdown of how 3.67 million Nigerians became jobless in one year.

The NBS repost showed that the number of unemployed Nigerians rose from 7.51 million at the beginning of October 2015 to 11.19 million at the end of September 2016.

High unemployment indicates less productivity and less contribution to the economy because jobless people are spending less.

Consequently, the government ends up borrowing money because of low revenues and high spending. Rise in employment rates also affects other areas, such as quality of health services and living standards.

Meanwhile, as cross section of Nigerian’s continue to pitch against their elected officials, uncertainty in the future pricing of petrol, herdsmen challenges amongst others, have been tipped as issues that may counter effort to attain meaningful development for the ERGP.

For instance, a serving member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Salihu Adamu (Boss and Paiko Federal Constituency), in Niger state narrowly escaped death on March 27 when aggrieved youths in his constituency beat him to a point of coma.

The above reflects the perception of cross section of Nigerian’s on their representatives, leaders and the leadership which may cut across all levels and localities various offices.

President Mohammadu Buhari had prior to the launch of ERGP stated, “We are committed to delivering on the three key areas that we promised. That is, improving security, tackling corruption and revitalizing the economy.

Security in the North-east and other parts of Nigeria is significantly better today than when we came in.

With regards to our fight against corruption, as you all know, our law enforcement agencies are prosecuting very many cases of corruption. Our successes in these two areas are clear for all to see.

“Our aim simply put, is to optimize local content and empower local businesses. We seek not just to take the Nigerian economy out of recession but to place it on a path of sustained, inclusive and diversified growth.

We are determined to change Nigeria from an import-dependent country to a producing nation. We must become a nation where we grow what we eat and consume what we produce. We must strive to have a strong naira and productive economy.”

Senator Udo Udoma, Minister of budget and national planning said the ERGP had three cardinal objectives, namely, to restore security, fight corruption and guarantee economic recovery.

The minister, who described the plan as the fulfilment of Buhari’s electoral campaign promise to promote and reinvigorate the economy, added that the plan would restore economic growth, invest in Nigerians, guarantee a competitive economy and build a self-reliant economy where Nigeria will consume what it produces and also export same to foreign countries.

According to Udoma, “The broad objectives of the ERGP are to restore growth, invest in our people and build a globally competitive economy.

As our president has repeatedly said, ours is to build a self-reliant economy – a country in which we can grow what we eat, use what we make and produce what we consume.

A country, which embraces the world of technology, ideas and investment from everywhere but domesticates these ideas for the use of our people.

A country which produces high quality goods, not just for our own consumption but enough to export to our neighbours and, indeed, the world.

Meanwhile, recent report has raised striking issues which may obstruct achievement of the objectives of the Economic recovery and growth plan of the federal government launched recently.

The recent SBM Intelligence Report, made available to Daily Times Nigeria, noted that even as the ERGP was launched at the time the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sounded unconvinced about the country’s economic plans, accomplishing objectives of the Plan, rests on arresting some extant issues.

According to the report, after a launch and then another formal launch, the general consensus on the insufficiency of the Nigerian government’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan remain the same.

“The plan is not far reaching enough, does not include concrete details and does not engender confidence in discerning investors and lenders, which would be the first goal it needed to achieve” said the report.

The new developmental plan is not far reaching enough, said the report as it lacks concrete details and “does not engender confidence in discerning investors and lenders, which would be the first goal it needed to achieve.”

The report pointed at some challenging issues as, currency stability, expected fuel price hike, EFCC’s credibility, amnesty deficit, government bungling of herdsmen situation among other issues may act as clog in the wheel of progress of the Plan.

It wondered how government would want to boost people’s living standard, and still deploying petrol price increase which may add to financial burden borne by the people.

The report pointed that fuel price is on the horizon, and may engender distrust on the people against any policy that promises to better their future, while at the same time impoverishing them.

the report said “The NNPC said on Wednesday that the recent increase in the petrol bridging allowance to transporters from ₦6.2 to ₦7.20 per liter will not lead to an increase in the pump price of petrol from the prevailing price of ₦145 per liter.

“The failure of Nigeria to maintain its existing petroleum pipelines and deport network has left the nation at the mercy of oil tanker drivers.

The additional transportation cost is passed on to consumers ensuring that the product is only available at the official rate in parts of Lagos and Abuja.

“As the price of crude fluctuates in the international market, so does the price of the finished product” said the report, pointing that in May 2016, the Buhari government was forced to increase the pump price of petrol and may likely repeat same, even as despite calls for total liberalization of the downstream sector to encourage private sector investments, Nigeria, along with Venezuela and a few Gulf states continue to provide the cheapest petrol globally.

On EFCC, the report said “The EFCC is not having a good week. Its most high-profile conviction in the last two years, former Adamawa governor, James Bala Ngilari – who was jailed just a month ago, secured bail under the most bizarre circumstances that the agency, the Prisons Service and the judiciary are now enmeshed in a probe of significant proportions.”

On lasting peace in Niger Delta, the report said “A more practical solution is to grant the region and its communities, rights to the mineral resources, allow them to come up with a legal document to guide their business and governance, under a fiscal federalism, that way the burden on the center will drastically reduce and starve off future conflict.”

It pointed that government need to address perception could further build confidence and boost support while checking people’s discontent.

The SBM report noted that, hence the National Assembly represent a sorry state of affairs in Nigeria’s government and politics, and that the events in Boss/Paiko may be replicated in other constituencies if members do not see themselves as serving the people’s interests rather than theirs, in Abuja.