Edun: Nigeria likely to miss 2025 revenue target by N30tn

Wale Edun, minister of finance, has said the federal government is likely to miss its 2025 revenue target by about N30 trillion.

Edun spoke on Tuesday in Abuja when he appeared before the House of Representatives committees on finance and national planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).

He said the government had projected revenue of N40.8 trillion to fund the 2025 budget, but current performance indicates that actual earnings may fall far short of that figure.

“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7 trillion, compared to the N40.8 trillion projection,” Edun said.

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The minister attributed the shortfall to weak oil and gas revenues, particularly petroleum profit tax (PPT) and company income tax (CIT), as well as poor performance across other revenue streams.

Despite the revenue gap, Edun said the government has continued to meet key obligations through what he described as “prudent treasury management”.

He said salaries, statutory transfers, and domestic and foreign debt servicing were settled through the “creative handling” of available resources.

Edun cautioned that expenditure plans must remain flexible and closely tied to actual oil revenues, warning against committing the government to spending based on uncertain projections.

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“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” he said.

Meanwhile, Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and national planning, said the MTEF and FSP were developed through extensive consultations with government agencies and the private sector.

He said the government is projecting oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day for the 2026 budget but will use a more conservative assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day for revenue calculations.