Buhari’s chances and hurdles in 2019

For a former military head of state in Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who bestrode the country with frightening images of sending many politicians into jail from December 1983 to August 1985, for many, the tiger has not changed his spots.
For 2003, 2007 and 2011 Muhammadu Buhari tried to win the presidency  but could not until 2015 when he allied himself with some four parties to form what then was a marriage of unlike minds.
With determination, he emerged victorious over President Jonathan and the PDP which had ruled the country for some 16 odd years.
After taking over from Jonathan, Buhari launched into what had come to be known as anti- corruption push anchored on the $2.1 billion Arms-gate under the watch of Col Sambo Dasuki (rtd).
It would seem, the APC as a party, had been driven on the wheels of propaganda and its continued credibility will also rely on repeated propaganda antics.
With the talks making the rounds about a possibility of a second term for the incumbent President, many seem persuaded to ask what his chances are.
With the creepy subterranean   under-currents of mistrust between the ‘Jagaban’ Bola Ahmed Tinubu [BAT] who has been linked with former Vice President the Turaki Adamawa,AlhajiAtikuAbubakar, it is not too clear if Tinubu and Atiku are up to any mischiefs and deals for 2019 presidential election.?
Atiku has a long distance desire to be President of Nigeria but when he fell apart with former President OlusegunObasanjo, he was by-passed by OBJ who reached for the late Musa Yar’dua.
And with Daily Independent’s lead story on the possibility of not picking Osibanjo as a running mate for the 2019 second term gamble, there must a moving away from the Tinubu’s loyalist.
If the story true it means that Buhari would go for either  former Governors Fayemi of  Ekiti state or Orji Kalu of Abia state.
The permutations for 2019 seem rather dicey as many Igbo believe  that after Dr Alex Ekwueme’s outing with President ShehuShagari in 1979, they ought to graduate beyond the vice presidential role.
To want to sentence the Igbo to a permanent position of Vice President, would offend their sensibilities especially with the Biafra dream always rumbling in the background.
If a President Jonathan had won the 2015 presidential elections, perhaps, it would have been easier for the Igbo to be given a chance at the Presidency in 2019 because of his close affinity with the Igbo- a second Niger Bridge from Delta to Onitsha and his middle name ‘Azikiwe’ and for appointing for the first time an Igbo Gen. Ihejiria as Chief of Army staff since the war ended, it was believed he would work assiduously for a President of Igbo extraction.
But the predictions and all round speculations failed. The new direction of Buhari could be headed toward another Yoruba candidate and the Minister of Solid Minerals Fayemi.
If Fayemi  could collect the vice presidential slot on a platter of gold, he had better prepare himself.
What happens to Orji Kalu? Can he over turn Fayemi?
Politics is a game of chess and anything could happen before 2019.
Familiar names like Chief Jim Nwobodo and Ken Namani are in the good books of Buhari. But Orji Kalu  a well- known business tychoon seems more loaded than the rest to win the Igbo to the APC fold.
The Igbo are generally known for their business acumen and if money could still bring to Aso Villa as Vice presidents, they could mobilise enough billions to capture even the Presidency.
For most commentators the hurdles appear more stifling than the chances for Buhari’s second term bid.
There is a latent feeling of the human rights abuse by the Buhari government where most court judgments calling for the release of detainees in either EFCC or DSS custody are denied release from their cells. Col Sambo Dasuki and Comrade Kanu of IPOB are still pinning away in detention.
The human rights deficit in Buhari’s government would make it a hard sell in the EAST while the oil facilities bombing Niger Delta militants, added to the Boko Haram snipers and suicide bombers are hurdles PMB must address before 2019.
The economic depression in the country will also prove a difficult sell for the second term agenda.
On the flipside, Buhari seems to stand tall in the eyes of the Northern hegemony who see in him a folk- herobeing worshipped for the wrong reasons of religious  bias and  inclinations.
That his anti- corruption posture successfully exposed the depth and dimensions of pilfering in the polity and for that people hail him as a Messiah.
Will time tell if these parametres  will prove positive for his second term bid.?