Analysts See Brent Crude Sliding Toward $70 Per Barrel
Brent crude may fall toward the $60 to $70 per barrel range in the coming weeks as traders assess the outlook for Russian oil exports, analysts at UBS have said.
In a market note, the team led by Giovanni Staunovo projected that Brent would end the year at $62 per barrel while maintaining “a more constructive outlook” for 2026.
The analysts said market attention is expected to shift to 2027 by mid-2026, with slowing non-OPEC+ supply growth and limited spare capacity likely to support prices despite rising global demand. Brent is forecast to trade at about $67 per barrel at the end of 2027.
Oil prices have been driven largely by uncertainty surrounding Russian supply, particularly the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil producers and escalating Ukrainian strikes on energy facilities, including export terminals and refineries. While some traders expect the disruptions to ease, UBS analysts warned that investors may be underestimating supply risks as attacks intensify and sanctions deepen.
Refiners in parts of Asia have also signalled plans to scale back Russian purchases in favour of cargoes from the Americas or the Middle East. However, UBS noted that Ukrainian attacks have temporarily pushed up Russia’s crude exports, as refinery shutdowns cut domestic consumption and freed up barrels for shipment.
The analysts said elevated oil-on-water levels have not resulted in higher on-land inventories, a development they believe will keep prices supported in the near term. Oil stored at sea is often used as a short-term option for producers but is vulnerable to quality deterioration, unlike on-land storage, which is more stable and linked to broader pipeline networks.
Global on-land crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels in September, with preliminary International Energy Agency data showing an additional decline of almost 30 million barrels in October, underscoring the tightening supply environment.
