Afrinvest Challenges NBS Inflation Data, Demands Transparency on Reference Period

In a rare move that could shake confidence in Nigeria’s economic reporting, Lagos-based investment powerhouse Afrinvest Limited has openly questioned the headline inflation figures released last week by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Afrinvest, which had projected December 2025 inflation at 33.6 percent on the back of base effects and year-end spending, was stunned when the NBS published a figure of just 15.15 percent.

The sharp divergence has triggered calls for clarity on the methodology used, particularly the reference period applied in recalculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

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According to Afrinvest, the statistics office shifted from a single-month reference period to an average of all 12 months of 2024, effectively smoothing the base year and avoiding what would have been a dramatic spike in December’s annual inflation.

While the firm acknowledged that this approach aligns with International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) standards, it warned that the timing of the revision raises questions about transparency and consistency.

“The figure released came in sharp contrast to our projections, with a wider gap that reduces confidence in the data,” Afrinvest said in its commentary note.

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“We welcome the adoption of a more robust reference period, but we would have appreciated more information on how the revised CPI series was derived.”

The NBS reported that headline inflation rose modestly to 15.15 percent in December from 14.45 percent in November, with the CPI index climbing to 131.2 points.

Year-on-year inflation fell sharply compared to 34.8 percent in December 2024, suggesting improved price stability. Food inflation also dropped to 10.84 percent from 39.84 percent a year earlier, while core inflation eased to 18.63 percent from 29.28 percent.

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Yet Afrinvest flagged anomalies in the revised CPI series, noting that December 2024 appeared to receive a “special adjustment” not applied to other months.

Under the old series, November CPI was higher than December, but the revised data reversed that relationship. Analysts warn this could distort year-on-year inflation readings for 2025, even if month-on-month trends remain intact.

The firm insists its concern is not to discredit the NBS but to demand clarity that builds investor confidence. “The issues that informed the 2024 reference period change may not persist going forward, but transparency is critical for credibility,” Afrinvest said.

Looking ahead, Afrinvest expects January 2026 inflation to print at 19.3 percent year-on-year, with mild upward pressure from annual price adjustments in housing, healthcare, and education. However, favourable FX dynamics and softer food inflation are expected to keep overall price pressures contained.

The intervention by Afrinvest, one of Nigeria’s most respected investment firms, underscores growing scrutiny of official economic data at a time when investors, businesses, and policymakers rely heavily on accurate inflation readings to guide decisions.