Africa’s $130bn Energy Gap: Platforms, Not Projects, Are Vacuuming Global Capital
By SAMUEL MOBOLAJI
Africa’s energy future is being rewritten, not in boardrooms, but in the way capital now flows. The numbers are staggering: the continent needs $130 billion every year in energy infrastructure through 2030, yet only 40 to 45 per cent of that target is being met. The reason isn’t a lack of money. It’s a lack of structure.
Institutional investors have already made their choice. In 2020, just 41 per cent of capital went into integrated energy platforms. By 2025, that figure had exploded to 83 per cent. The verdict is clear: single‑asset projects are dying. Platforms are the future.
This is the new playbook of Africa’s energy elite. Femi Otedola didn’t just sell Geregu Power; he turned it into a multi‑asset engine, integrating gas supply, generation, and wheeling infrastructure. Tony Elumelu’s Heirs Holdings built Transnational Energy across Nigeria, Zambia, and Uganda, pulling in $1.2 billion and locking in a 19 per cent IRR floor. Sahara Energy raised $600 million in Q4 2025, not on kilowatt hours, but on jurisdictional diversity and covenant strength.
The market is speaking in hard figures: platform‑backed energy assets command 32 per cent higher valuations than standalone projects. Investors are paying for certainty, not capacity. They demand four things: airtight contracts, routing control, transparent cash discipline, and downside ownership. Miss one, and capital walks.
Contrast that with Dangote’s $19 billion refinery. It is an engineering marvel, but also a cautionary tale: a monolithic asset in a single jurisdiction, exposed to political risk, currency volatility, and regulatory bottlenecks. It commands attention, but not trust.
The paradox is stark. Africa doesn’t need more gas; it needs governance. It doesn’t need more plants; it needs platforms. The titans know this, and they are building systems designed for resilience, liquidity, and exit. The rest are running behind.
Capital is rotating hard into structured, multi‑asset vehicles. Analysts, therefore, project 3x to 5x returns over the next three to five years. The message is unmistakable: sentiment doesn’t attract capital. Structure does. And Africa’s energy elite are already cashing in.
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