African Airlines Record 7.8% Traffic Growth in 2025
African airlines recorded a 7.8 percent increase in annual passenger traffic in 2025, according to the full-year report released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on February 5, 2026. This growth, fueled by rising connectivity and an expanding middle class, pushed the region’s load factor a measure of seat occupancy—to a record high of 74.9 percent. While Africa continues to post the lowest load factor globally compared to regions like Asia-Pacific (84.2%) and Europe (84.8%), the 0.9 percentage point improvement represents the strongest year-on-year increase of any global region, signaling a steady optimization of existing capacity.
The 2025 results highlight a significant recovery in air travel demand, with December traffic alone soaring 10.3 percent over the previous year. This surge in demand coincided with a 6.5 percent expansion in capacity by African carriers, as airlines worked to capitalize on both intra-African and international travel flows. Globally, total passenger demand rose 5.3 percent, indicating that African aviation is currently outpacing the global average in terms of growth momentum as the industry returns to historical patterns following the post-COVID rebound.
Despite the record traffic, the sector faces a “double-edged sword” of rising demand and critical supply chain constraints. IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted that while travelers are eager to fly, airlines were “continually disappointed” by unreliable delivery schedules for new aircraft and engines. These bottlenecks, combined with limited maintenance capacity, have forced African carriers to keep older, less fuel-efficient aircraft in service longer. The resulting cost increases are estimated to exceed $11 billion globally, a figure that places a disproportionate burden on African airlines already operating on thin margins of approximately $1.20 net profit per seat.
The economic implications for the continent are profound. Aviation serves as a vital engine for Nigeria’s and Africa’s broader GDP goals, particularly as the region moves toward the 2027 broadband and infrastructure targets. However, the high operating costs often 15 percent above global norms due to heavy taxes and levies remain a barrier to sustainable expansion. In Nigeria, Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos remained a top-ten hub for departing seats in December, yet the country, like its neighbors, struggles with the “security premium” and fuel price volatility that inflate the cost of air travel.
Historically, Africa’s aviation market has been fragmented, with international hubs growing faster than underserved domestic routes. The 2025 data suggests a shift, as newer connectivity links such as Air Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam to Accra service begin to support east-west travel. Furthermore, the cargo sector remains a standout performer; African airlines saw a 6.0 percent rise in annual cargo demand, with November 2025 alone recording a 15.6 percent jump. This growth is largely driven by trade activity on the Africa-Asia lane and a shift toward air freight for high-value goods as shippers navigate global trade re-routing.
As the industry moves into 2026, IATA forecasts a global passenger growth of 4.4 percent, reaching approximately 5.2 billion travelers. For African carriers, the challenge will be transitioning from “band-aid” measures like maximizing seat utilization on aging fleets to a real solution involving fleet renewal and decarbonization. To achieve this, industry leaders argue that governments must provide favorable fiscal frameworks and support the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production to protect long-term growth.
The 2025 performance underscores Africa’s role as a core engine of global air transport growth. While structural constraints like safety gaps and high taxes continue to undermine profitability, the unprecedented demand levels provide a foundation for a more ambitious aviation future. For Nigeria, maintaining the momentum of its major hubs while addressing the underlying costs of operation will be critical to supporting its $1 trillion GDP target and ensuring that the aviation sector remains a resilient pillar of the national economy.
