30 years since the Budapest Memorandum: Russia And The War In Ukraine

Putin’s war against Ukraine is in direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum, a key instrument assuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine had the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal on its territory. When Ukrainian-Russian negotiations on removing those weapons from Ukraine stalled in September 1993, the U.S. government engaged in a trilateral process with Ukraine and Russia.

The result was the Trilateral Statement, signed in January 1994, under which Ukraine agreed to transfer the nuclear warheads to Russia for elimination.

In return, Ukraine received security assurances from the United States, Russia and Great Britain; compensation for the economic value of the highly-enriched uranium in the warheads (which could have been blended down and converted into fuel for nuclear reactors); and assistance from the United States in dismantling the missiles, missile silos, bombers and nuclear infrastructure on its territory.

The 1994 Budapest Memorandum was supposed to provide Ukraine with an effective security guarantee. Under that deal, Ukraine believed it had received the US, British and Russian security pledges in return for the surrender of the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal at that time located on its territory.

It seemed a fair deal for a young country in need of financial aid and international recognition. But, as we know, it was flouted by Russia and many countries now feel that it had been a mistake.

In light of the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine and escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War from 2022, former US president Bill Clinton, in April 2023, expressed regrets for pressuring Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons.

However, Ukraine remains committed to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (hereinafter NPT) and does not intend to acquire nuclear weapons.

The Budapest Memorandum is still a valid and binding international treaty that ensures the implementation of the NPT regime and imposes certain obligations on the signatory states.

The Budapest Memorandum played its role in the development of Ukrainian statehood and influenced the development of national foreign policy in the geopolitical situation around Ukraine that existed at that time.

It should be emphasized that the preservation of the nuclear potential, in the face of sharp contradictions with Western countries, threatened Ukraine with international isolation and a possible loss of Ukrainian sovereignty through another inclusion into the new Russian empire under pressure from members of the “nuclear club”.

After Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea, it became clear that the Budapest Memorandum was declarative in nature, as the signatory states did not demonstrate their will and determination to implement the necessary political, economic and military measures to fulfill their obligations to Ukraine during the large-scale Russian-Ukrainian war treacherously launched by the Kremlin, and did not fulfill the guarantees to Ukraine to ensure its national security, preserve sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine revealed not only the lack of an adequate response from the signatory states, but also a significant gap between the declared generally recognized norms and principles of international law and geopolitical reality.

The flagrant violation of the Memorandum by the Russian Federation, which possesses nuclear weapons, gives Ukraine significant legal and moral grounds for reconsidering its non-nuclear choice made in early 1994 and, if necessary, to withdraw from the NPT, the ratification of which was conditioned precisely by the security guarantees promised by the USA, Great Britain and Russia.

According to The Times, “the weight of reactor plutonium at Ukraine’s disposal is estimated at seven tons,” which is “enough for hundreds of warheads with a tactical yield of several kilotons.” If produced, each of these nuclear charges would have power of about one-tenth that of the “Fat Man” (the plutonium-laden atomic bomb dropped by the United States on Nagasaki, Japan, on August 9, 1945).

This would be enough to completely destroy any Russian air base or concentration of Russian military, industrial, or logistical facilities that threaten Ukraine’s existence. It also notes that “the exact power of these nuclear charges will be unpredictable, since they will use different isotopes of plutonium.”

At the same time, Ukraine has repeatedly stated that it does not want to terminate the NPT regime, which is being destroyed by the Russian Federation with its aggressive and illegal actions.

However, further advance of Russian troops and capture by them of Ukrainian cities, including the city of Pavlograd, an important military-industrial center currently located 90 km from the front line, can force Ukraine to decide to develop national program to restore Ukraine’s defensive nuclear potential.

If the necessary decisions are not made in a timely manner, there is a risk that some of the largest cities of Ukraine, such as Dnipro and Kharkiv, can be captured by the Russian occupiers even before Ukraine’s nuclear weapons have been developed.

It is known that the USA and NATO countries, as well as other leading countries of the world, including Japan, India and even China, Brazil and influential Arab countries, take the Russian nuclear threat extremely seriously, as it could destroy not only the NPT, but also life on Earth.

Various influential figures in the West are calculating various options for action, including another possible “pacification” of the Putin regime at the expense of the national interests of Ukraine.

Others are calling for the immediate return of nuclear weapons to Ukraine so that it can protect itself from nuclear blackmail by the Russian Federation.

However, probably, the best option for everyone would be the real fulfillment of the promises made by partners to Ukraine within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum and making, including by force, the Russian aggressor to end the criminal war against the Ukrainian people, which lead to a global nuclear war and the destruction of the entire world.