BY OSENI OMOTOLANI
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria MAN has said that the outlook for the manufacturing sector in 2024 may not be positive, especially in the first half of the year.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir projected that the year would be challenging, with subtle possibility of recovery from the third quarter.
According to him, the envisaged recovery depends on deploying policy stimulus supported by a synthesis of domestic growth driven by export-focused and offensive trade strategies.
He said this would promote resilience and steady growth and ensure that the sector gains meaningful traction in the latter part of the year.
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The MAN chief noted that a quick examination of the trajectory of manufacturing globally, portrayed a struggling sector challenged by key macroeconomic variables and externalities, leading to dwindling growth.
He said the manufacturing growth rates in China evidenced this, as the United States of America and South Africa, with Nigeria not exempted.
He noted that the manufacturing growth rate nosedived to 0.48 per cent in Q3 2023 against 2.4 per cent in 2021.
“Drawing from likely economic dynamics and in the light of the aforementioned, the projections for the manufacturing sector in 2024 are as follows: There will be clarity on the actual and specific policy direction and priority areas of the current administration, especially around deepening industrialisation and we look forward to engaging government in this regard.
“In 2024, sectoral real growth is expected to hit about 3.2 per cent; contribution to the economy will most likely exceed 10 per cent, and the Manufacturers’ CEOs Confidence Index is predicted to rise above 55 points threshold by the end of Q4 2023.
“Average capacity utilisation will still hover around the 50 per cent threshold as the foreign exchange related challenges and high inflation rate limiting manufacturing performance may linger until mid-year. The sector may experience a meagre improvement in manufacturing output as foreign exchange and interest rates related challenges are expected to subside from the third quarter,” Mr Ajayi-Kadir explained.
Ajayi-Kadir added that higher manufacturing output was envisaged from the beginning of the year’s third quarter.
This, he explained, would happen as the government disburses capital provisions of the budget to abandoned, ongoing and new capital projects with expected special preference for locally made products.
The MAN boss said the ongoing concessions of seaports, airports and roads may also provide opportunities for the cement sub-sector and contribute to infrastructure upgrades to enhance manufacturing productivity.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir said the results of the emerging upward surge in global oil prices, domestic oil and gas production, local refining of petroleum products and projected gains of exchange rate unification would promote stability in the foreign exchange market.
He stated that this would impact manufacturing positively from the second half of the year, reduce the pressure on demand for foreign exchange, and improve the inflow of export proceeds from oil and gas.
“We should expect dynamic implementation of the Electricity Act 2023, which will increase private investment in renewable energy, enhance energy efficiency and improve electricity supply to the manufacturing sector.
“The improved electricity supply will ameliorate the issue of inadequacy, reduce the disruptions occasioned by frequent outages, and, in turn, improve energy security.
“In broad terms, the year 2024 may start on a tough note for manufacturing but may end with some measured improvements because the envisaged policy reforms, improved commitment to domestic production, and general positive outlook seem favourable for the sector,” he said.
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